The fires this time

A bookmaker with an eye to free publicity is taking bets on which Australian beach will be the first engulfed by global warming. Try backing another  proposition — that NSW is facing an outbreak of bushfires, with the Blue Mountains especially at risk — and likely as not you will find no takers to cover that wager. While bookies can usually recognise a mug, they are even better at knowing when not to lay odds on a sure thing.

Nevertheless, if fires do hit, count on the settled scientists stampeding as per usual to the nearest microphone where, also as usual, the flames will be described as yet further evidence that catastrophic climate change is here, real and getting worse. Along with lovely grants, business-class seats, nice hotels and a free pass from their institutions when papers are withdrawn for shoddy scholarship, there is nothing your climate scientist likes more than making a pulpit of disaster. With thoughts of Paris very much in the warmist fraternity’s mind just now, expect the race for a guest spots on Radio National to be especially animated.

When that catastropharian chorus starts up, along with the usual bag of salt it would be useful to keep in mind the analysis of someone who actually knows a thing or two about bushfires, David Packham AO, who punctuates the warmer months with regular emails detailing fire risks and conditions. Below, excerpts from his latest advisory. Climate change is nowhere mentioned. Not so the rather more immediate threat posed by authorities who, bending to the Green will, neglect to reduce fuel loads when it is safe to do so:

….the high pressure systems are still moving north, and the situation in mid-NSW may be quite serious … I can tell you, having seen it couple of weeks ago, that the Blue Mountains are very scary …

… with a Forest Fire Danger Index of 43 and a modest average fuel of 25 tonnes per hectare (it is probably to 30-40 tonnes/ha), any forest fire, and there will be some, can expect a max rate of spread at 1 kph, flames into the crowns and spot fires up to 4 km.

In short a day to be careful in the forest country….

Not that sense and experience will carry much weight when the tang of smoke is once again in the air. Paris is waiting, and which climate scientist worth his grants would wish to put the truth between himself those 300-count Egyptian cotton sheets they use at the best hotels?

The link below leads to an SBS story from last year, when Packham explained the specious connection between alleged climate change and infernoes like the Black Saturday disaster of 2009. Being SBS, it gives equal weight to the environmental expertise of the Greens’ Adam Bandt who — you guessed it!!! — blames Tony Abbott for blackening the countryside.