Russia’s Greater Game

What is Russia’s game plan in the Middle East? When we analyse Russian policy, we start from the obvious and then delve into the realm of speculation. We cannot accept all of Moscow’s pronouncements at face value. Instead, Russian aims have to be understood on several levels.

Obviously, the preservation of the Assad regime in what is left of Syria is a continuation of the longstanding client relationship, going back to Soviet times. Russia has critical physical assets to defend, especially its naval base. But, in addition, Putin’s Russia sees opportunity to regain what was lost during the preceding four decades, and to achieve what the old Soviet Union never accomplished — the total extinguishing of American and Western influence in the Middle East.

Putin practices a brutal realpolitik. Contrary to muddled thinking by all too many so-called experts in the West, realpolitik does not entail the cynical abandonment of allies. On the contrary, fidelity to allies is the…