![virus micro II](https://quadrant.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/virus-micro-II.png)
Lost in a Wilderness of Models
Last Friday’s Daily Telegraph had a curious story (paywalled, so no link) by reporter Anna Caldwell. Here is an extract (emphasis added):
The latest health modelling, held at the highest levels of the NSW Government, shows that on our current trajectory virus cases will not peak until sometime between November and February.
The theory in the modelling is that we have been so successful in suppressing the spread of COVID-19 that we have elongated the tail of this virus.
On current modelling, that so-called “peak” in November would only see upwards of 500 people needing ICU beds.
It’s a dramatic improvement on the do-nothing but tell people to wash their hands approach, which the modelling says would have swamped our health system with 4500 people needing intensive care by July when we only had 1100 beds.
It’s also an improvement on the scenario we faced by late March when we’d simply decided to stop mass gatherings but not yet implemented the stay-home edict and…
Madam: Archbishop Fisher (July-August 2024) does not resist the attacks on his church by the political, social or scientific atheists and those who insist on not being told what to do.
Aug 29 2024
6 mins
To claim Aborigines have the world's oldest continuous culture is to misunderstand the meaning of culture, which continuously changes over time and location. For a culture not to change over time would be a reproach and certainly not a cause for celebration, for it would indicate that there had been no capacity to adapt. Clearly this has not been the case
Aug 20 2024
23 mins
A friend and longtime supporter of Quadrant, Clive James sent us a poem in 2010, which we published in our December issue. Like the Taronga Park Aquarium he recalls in its 'mocked-up sandstone cave' it's not to be forgotten
Aug 16 2024
2 mins