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Lost in a Wilderness of Models

Peter O'Brien

Apr 28 2020

6 mins

Last Friday’s Daily Telegraph had a curious story (paywalled, so no link) by reporter Anna Caldwell.  Here is an extract (emphasis added):

The latest health modelling, held at the highest levels of the NSW Government, shows that on our current trajectory virus cases will not peak until sometime between November and February.

 The theory in the modelling is that we have been so successful in suppressing the spread of COVID-19 that we have elongated the tail of this virus.

On current modelling, that so-called “peak” in November would only see upwards of 500 people needing ICU beds. 

It’s a dramatic improvement on the do-nothing but tell people to wash their hands approach, which the modelling says would have swamped our health system with 4500 people needing intensive care by July when we only had 1100 beds. 

It’s also an improvement on the scenario we faced by late March when we’d simply decided to stop mass gatherings but not yet implemented the stay-home edict and…

Peter O'Brien

Peter O'Brien

Regular contributor

Peter O'Brien

Regular contributor

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