QED

We’ll Beat COVID, or so They Keep Saying

Commentators and politicians seem to be looking to the COVID future through today’s lens. I reckon that’s mistaken. Unfortunately, while it sounds promising, getting 80 per cent of the population vaccinated is unlikely to provide the key to freedom and normality. There are clues to what lies ahead, none of them auspicious.

In my last QoL post I referred to data from the UK and Israel showing that significant numbers of people who had been double-jabbed were landing in hospital, and some dying. It’s a potential clue to the future. I am not making too much of it at this stage. It is clear, assuming we can trust the authorities in the UK, for example, that vaccinations are markedly lessening the severity of the disease for the vast majority of those who become infected or reinfected. At least for now. But surely it is not a good sign that some are  still falling very sick?

Israelis are giving those over 60 years a booster third dose. They would not be doing that for no reason. This is one of those concrete clues as to what lies ahead. Here’s another: The UK is demanding that those fully vaccinated returning from France need to quarantine because of the prevalence of the Beta variant in a French outpost; the island of Réunion in the southern Indian Ocean. Leave aside the geographical peculiarity of the case, why at this stage is the Beta (South African) variant a threat in the UK? We’ve been through Beta and Gamma and are up to Delta. Keep up!

As at July 30, the UK government’s healthcare data showed that 88.4 per cent of adults had received one dose of the vaccine and 71.8 per cent had received a double dose. Yet passports to get into nightclubs is on the agenda for  September. By that time well over 80 per cent of Britons will have been double-jabbed and almost everyone in the vulnerable groups. It’s passing strange to say the least.

The UK’s current position is very close to the stage in Australia when, apparently, all vaccinated people will be free of domestic restrictions. Or so we’ve just been promised by Scott Morrison. However, I’m not at all sure that Mark McGowan, Annastacia Palaszczuk, Frazzled Gladys and Dictator Dan, et al, are on board. So, will generalised lockdowns end once we get to the 80 per cent mark? Lucy’s football comes to mind.

Outside of some red states, America is still locked into fearful territory. The CDC has just updated its guidance. Among other things, fully vaccinated people are advised to wear masks in public indoor settings in areas of substantial or high transmission or where others are not fully vaccinated. It recommends universal indoor masking for all teachers, staff, students and visitors to schools, regardless of vaccination status. It recommends that those fully vaccinated get tested if they have been exposed to someone with suspected or confirmed COVID, and to wear a mask in public for fourteen days thereafter in public indoor settings or until they get a negative test result. And if they test positive, to isolate.

Doesn’t sound like COVID dystopia is going away anytime soon in the United States, does it?

The problem is that these novel vaccines do not prevent people from catching the virus. And I heard Lord Fauci of Wuhan the other day say that the viral load among those catching it was no different between vaccinated and unvaccinated people. This seems to run counter to the view, for example, of the UK health authorities who claim that those vaccinated are less likely to transmit the virus. But who knows? Precisely. And that’s the issue.

By the time Australia reaches the magic 80 per cent level, circumstances will have changed. New variants will have gathered pace. Lambda maybe, even spawn of Lambda? Boosters will clearly be mandated by the public health gurus.

What seems unlikely to change is the monumental uncertainty surrounding this mutating virus and the continued effectiveness of the vaccines. And, also, the template to manage it. Breaking that template would require uncommon political nerve, resolution and skill. Don’t see any of that about anywhere.

It is extremely doubtful that we will go back to living freely and normally for a very long time to come. Take another complication from the UK which, come the northern hemisphere winter, will also hit home here. This comes courtesy of a UK government public-health blog. I’ll summarise and paraphrase.

Restrictions in place over the autumn and winter of 2020/21 have meant little flu circulating last season. Worryingly, this may mean that more people are susceptible to the illness this year. There has also been a remarkable reduction in respiratory viral infections other than Covid. Thus, an increasing number of young children have never been exposed to these common viruses. As restrictions ease and people mix more, we are expecting to see a significant rise in the total number of RSV infections (causing coughs and colds) and bronchiolitis in children under two years of age.

Imagine Europe and North America in December struggling with the flu, with RSV infections in children, with mutant transmissible COVID cases, with crowded hospitals. Do you think that our premiers and public health advisers will be sanguine in the sunshine about the winter to come? I doubt it.

18 comments
  • Hot2Trot

    I believe that our immune system needs to be trained through exposure to a range of deseases. Bring life back to normal while educating the vulnerable on the tools and methods to protect themselves.

  • Losthope

    Sir,
    great points of consideration

  • Stephen Due

    The Covid vaccines have not been fully approved because they have not been studied in long-term trials. Importantly, there is no scientific data on their long-term adverse effects.
    Nevertheless governments, while taking care to stop short of actual compulsion, are mounting massive propaganda campaigns to ‘encourage’ people to ‘get vaccinated’. These campaigns are supported by comprehensive MSM and Big Tech censorship of alternative views, and accompanied by threats of rolling lockdowns, intermittent masking, vaccine ‘passports’, and employment vaccine mandates. If this is not the actual use of force, it certainly includes elements of both bullying and psychological manipulation.
    Mass vaccination with these products is unethical because the life-long risks are unknown. The use of propaganda, intimidation, and censorship to promote ‘the jab’ only adds insult to injury.

  • ianl

    The Delta strain is definitely more infectious than earlier ones but hard data from the UK, the US and increasingly here in Aus shows that hospitalisation and deaths are trending down. That our NSW CMO & Deputy CMO avoid the latter by emphasising only the small number of younger people being hospitalised (including ICU) is clearly propaganda. Some of the MSM show their powerlust by referring to “virulence” when honesty requires “transmissivity”. (Similarly, climate activists hammer away at “carbon” to avoid the accurate term “carbon dioxide”. This shows they do not know the difference between a solid and a gas, or more likely think that most people don’t know or care).
    This next may be some measure of how many people regard the 10km limit from their Greater Sydney homes. I live in the Upper Mountains on the line of National Park with sparser housing and considerable bush along a narrow road some km from any small village. This last week there has been quite a number of sneaky cars (that I’ve never seen before in 40 years) turn up for a day, parking along my nature strip. City folk doing a bush runner to relieve the frustration ?

  • Daffy

    Getting rid of a virus is a fool’s game. It took 35 years to ‘get rid’ of polio. And that a disease less readily transmissible than CV-19 with a vaccine of splendid effect.

  • pgang

    80% is probably impossible anyway. Looks to me like a deliberately impossible target. What if we only get to 70%? Childish, ridiculous, and fully suited to what little is left of Australia.
    But Daffy, politicians weren’t as smart then as they are now. Ours are more like superheros strutting around in their tights and golden armour. They can achieve literally anything. They are the demigods of nature.

  • Occidental

    Peter you might be interested in this article if you have not seen it already-
    https://edition.cnn.com/2021/08/01/health/uk-scientists-covid-variant-beat-vaccines-intl/index.html
    Last year I thought after a month or two the world would snap out of this hysteria, and face the music. No, I was wrong. 18 months later you have “scientists”, recommending government action to reduce the spread as much as possible (to hell with the costs). It also fascinates me that there is not a daily or weekly examination of Swedens experience. Whenever in The Australian I comment about Sweden, (and the censor fails to block my comment), the usual response is “14,000 dead!”. I just give up. For what it is worth here in Manila where I live, three members of our extended family have died with covid. Two who were in their 80’s and demented, and only one probably before her time at 60, but with uncontrolled diabetes. I have had two bouts of covid, and both like mild head colds, save for dry coughs and headaches.

  • pgang

    Fascinating real-world stats Occidental. We never hear any real-life stories in Australia for a very simple reason. Nobody knows anybody who knows anybody who has suffered at all from the virus.
    One day, in the far-off future, historians will analyse what is happening now, probably in an attempt to understand how the West failed and the world descended into chaos. To ‘learn the lessons of history which must never be repeated’.

  • brandee

    How much are Australian scientists responsible for the development of COVID 19? Senator Matt Canavan said on TV yesterday that he will continue to use Senate investigations to examine why CSIRO scientists worked with the Wuhan Institute of Virology for over a decade using gain of function on bat viruses. Even the Bat Lady herself has been in Australia on a work visit to our bat research laboratories and her assistant worked on research here over a period of years.
    Health Minister Greg Hunt has agreed to determine what controls if any are able to limit the involvement of public funded Australian CSIRO scientists in such dangerous research and research done in conjunction with a communist government.
    About time this country stirred from its slumber!

  • Peter Smith

    Thanks for that link Occidental. I hadn’t seen the article. But I note this morning that the UK is readying for a booster jab, and of a different vaccine. It is clear that immunity from the double jab has a very short shelf life. And how long before the booster will need boosting.
    80% and we’ll be free. Pull the other one.

  • Phillip

    Look, here in the sunstroked socialist state of Annastasia’s Palace, what you do when you return from an all expenses paid on fully superannuated salary, trip from downtown Tokyo, well you just put yourself up in a 5 star hotel in the Brisbane CBD.
    But it’s a bummer if you’re a returning member of a record breaking Aussie Olympic swim team, from the very same downtown Tokyo…you get to live it up in the dust blown hell hole of Howard Springs…!!!?
    Ahh the fruits of an equitable socialism created and controlled by communistic dictators.

  • Phillip

    Look, here in the sunstroked socialist state of Annastasia’s Palace, what you do when you return from an all expenses paid on fully superannuated salary, trip from downtown Tokyo, well you just put yourself up in a 5 star hotel in the Brisbane CBD.
    But it’s a bummer if you’re a returning member of a record breaking Aussie Olympic swim team, from the very same downtown Tokyo…you get to live it up in the dust blown hell hole of Howard Springs…!!!?
    Ahh the fruits of an equitable socialism created and controlled by communistic Covid dictators.

  • RB

    Pgang. My brother-in-law and his wife were both on the Ruby Princess and both contracted covid.
    Happily and contrary to the reports in the media they had been warned that something nasty was on the ship so they went straight home for 2 weeks.
    It was described to me as the worst case of flu they had endured.
    Both were very ill indeed, both are healthy non-smokers and are fit in their mid 60’s.

  • nfw

    For awhile Glads was spouting the 80% requirement. But when it was pointed out she was either deliberately misusing or more likely did not understand the Pareto Principle of the 80% reaping the rewards from the 20%, she dropped it. To put it the other way she should have been shouting for 20% because that group provides the benefit to the majority. I see she has now started to say 4 out of 5. She really does think we are stupid.

  • nfw

    For awhile Glads was spouting the 80% requirement. But when it was pointed out she was either deliberately misusing or more likely did not understand the Pareto Principle of the 80% reaping the rewards from the 20%, she dropped it. To put it the other way she should have been shouting for 20% because that group provides the benefit to the majority. I see she has now started to say 4 out of 5. She really does think we are stupid.

  • nfw

    There is something truly suspicious about all this. The Left and the Right are in lockstep and that generally only means one thing: money. Don’t forget the power as part of the new ruling elite. On any normal day if the Coalition were to say something is black, Labor would say it’s white. We hear nothing. So there’s either a lot of something in it for them all; or they know something so terrible is about to happen, eg the lizard people are real, and they are all frightened to say. At a more simple level it’s more than likely they have come to realise they have been lying to us but their egos won’t let them let go of the shovel they are using to dig the hole deeper at our expense. Expense which is not only monetary but psychological; the destruction of business dreams by those sucking at the public teat who know not of bankruptcy or loss; destruction of children’s minds and bodies through lack of academics and sport; destruction of families; excessive intake of alcohol and tobacco which we have been told for years are major killers but are now essential shopping. And now the theatre in china? Just another part of the con for the pathetic MSM to use to maintain the pretence.

  • Rebekah Meredith

    My sister is in her 20s and, generally, very healthy. This year she had the flu (the old-fashioned kind) in March; for about a week, she had to just take it easy and do almost nothing. The one day she did rest much, she ended up with a fever that reached 103 in the old system.
    In June, she, our parents, and I all had a cold that didn’t amount to much of anything. However, that virus (or perhaps several different ones) infected people we know from Busselton over 90 minutes south of us to Mount Helena 90 minutes or more northeast of us. Some of those who had it ended up pretty sick, with the “Busselton variant” seeming particularly bad.
    Early last month, my sister picked up that variant. It was just a cold or something like it, but she spent a few days basically in bed, and was definitely unwell for two weeks. It’s now been over three weeks, and, while she’s mostly recovered, she still has a blocked ear–lingering side-effects, you know. She may end up having to go to the doctor–a thing that we, blessedly, almost never have to do.
    Coincidence? Possibly, especially since the rest of us have been largely healthy. But could my little sister be paying part of the price of the Panicdemic?

  • rosross

    The concept of vaccinology needs to be seriously questioned. It has long been based on antibody or Titer levels and yet studies have clearly demonstrated people with high Titer levels can fall sick and die while those with low levels remain healthy.

    In addition, common sense would say, how can a child develop robust and optimal immune function when its system has been tricked, confused, manipulated, deceived, dozens of times in the first five years of life into reacting to a non-threat? For that is the raison d’etre of vaccination and since confusion in a cell is what we call Cancer, i.e. losing or forgetting the ability for apoptosis, what sort of job is a confused immune system likely to do?

    Vaccination today is totally artificial and increasingly genetically manipulative. From whizzing up a bit of scab to spread on a scratch on the skin, which at least offered normal and natural immune system exposure to a pathogen, we now have artificially concocted pathogens injected into the body for quick uptake by the bloodstream in ways impossible in nature.

    Not only that but the vaccine contains a cocktail of synthetic chemicals along with antibiotics. And yes, the scientist would say that a natural ingredient and a synthetic version are the same chemically, but as Pasteur discovered in his experimentation, that does not make them the same at a molecular level. And in nature everything appears in combination, while in modern medicine, in order to reap the profits of patents, things are reduced to the singular and the synthetic.

    While these synthetic chemicals have been studied in the singular in terms of dosage and toxicity, there appears to be no study of them in combination and as any good chemist knows, something in the singular is different to something in combination. Neither have studies been done into the practice of giving a child more than one vaccinations in a session, sometimes as many as eight or ten.

    Where in the natural world does a child’s immune system ever receive the message that it is being threatened by two pathogens at exactly the same time, let alone a dozen? It doesn’t happen.

    And with the Covid genetic treatments called vaccines, nano-particles in ways never used before with potential outcomes which might be a disaster. We are worried about them in the ocean and now we inject them into humans.

    Neither have we had ‘vaccines’ turn the body into ‘ a factory’ producing a vaccine, as Bill Gates described it. The mRNA treatments interfere with cell function so it will manufacture a Covid disease spike protein, , which somehow is going to help the body identify the Covid pathogen and mount a defence, and yet not result in such cellular manipulation creating total confusion to the degree the body turns upon itself.

    So we have in modern science-medicine enough knowledge to be dangerous and levels of hubris and ignorance in regard to the belief that the human organism can be reduced to the material and mechanical and treated as if it were a ‘bag of chemicals’ as one doctor described it when there is no evidence that is, was or could ever be the case.

    In an age when our children are jabbed mercilessly within hours of birth, if not in utero, in ways never done before and where we have vaccinology at cult levels as a response to any perceived threat, we need to be very sure about what we are doing. For, if it goes wrong it is the lives of our children and grandchildren we have sacrificed and the future of humanity which is at risk.

    Some great medical minds intuited and understood this long ago but were of course ignored. Macfarlane Burnet, Nobel Prize laureate for immunology, suggested over half a century ago that genetics, nutrition, psychological and environmental factors (ecological medicine) may play a more important role in resistance to disease than the assumed benefits of artificial immunity induced by vaccination procedures (Burnet 1952 p106).

    He suggested that in years to come society may have to reassess the belief scientists were placing in vaccination. He considered that genetic deterioration of the population may be a consequence of universal mass vaccination campaigns and he postulated that ‘some of our modern successes in preventative and curative medicine may on the longest view be against the best interests of the state’ (Burnet 1952 p107).

    Burnet (1952) believed that genetic constitution was the most important hidden variable in disease statistics. Gilbert (2004) reinforces this theory with a new definition of environmental health that emphasises the importance of genetic potential to health outcomes from environmental hazards. This is described in chapter 2. It is possible that the genetics and health of the population are at risk if these factors are not considered in the preventative strategies that are adopted in the control of infectious diseases. Burnet FM. 1952. The Pattern of Disease in Childhood. Australasian Annals of Medicine. 1: 2: pp93-107.

    Science-medicine as any reading of history reveals, learns very slowly and changes even more slowly. That can be positive or it can be negative and very, very, dangerous when it is on a destructive course. Vaccinology has morphed into the realms of Frankenstein science and medicine and we ignore that fact at our peril.

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