Public Health

If Only COVID Would Permit a Reflective Breath

There are doubts and issues aplenty surrounding these COVID vaccines, many fuelled by conflicting and confused messages from politicians.  My basic premise is that we are so often deceived by politicians, bureaucrats and the MSM on almost any contentious topic that it is only natural a person with doubts or questions will resort to the internet.  If the mainstream media, in particular, were doing its job, holding health bureaucrats and politicians to account and providing balanced coverage of these issues, common people would be less sceptical, and genuine disinformation could be weeded out.  People would not feel the need to trawl the the web, where disinformation abounds. The ‘cancelling’ of Craig Kelly and his advocacy of ivermectin is a case in point.

And now we have a significant number of epidemiologists coming out against mandates and vaccine passports, notably the very cautious and measured Dr Peter Collignon. As epidemiology chair at Deakin University, Professor Catherine Bennett, puts it: “Once you get to 90 and 95 (per cent), you have such a small population of unvaccinated people who could contribute to transmission dynamics in a major way. It becomes even lower over summer as more people are exposed. There’s not enough to undermine what we’re trying to achieve or to overload hospitals.”

That struck a chord with me.

Put another way, you will not encounter many unvaccinated people.  Not every unvaccinated person you meet will have the virus.  Most won’t, particularly if you consider that most unvaccinated people are likely to exercise the basic preventative measures (social distancing and hygiene) that largely worked before we had the vaccine.  Granted some unvaccinated may not act ‘responsibly’, but the more they are demonized and ostracized the less likely it is that they will conform.  Surely it would be more effective to allow them to exercise their basic rights as citizens and appeal to their consideration to others.

Your most dangerous encounter with an unvaccinated person will be someone with whom you spend a reasonable amount of time in close proximity.  In which case you will probably know them and know that they are unvaccinated.  You will be able to take whatever precautions you think necessary.  Your least-risky encounter will be a fleeting encounter with a stranger in a shop, pub or restaurant.  If you are particularly concerned in these situations, you also can choose to social distance and pay particular attention to hygiene.  Even wear a mask if you’re that fearful.

If you are vaccinated and you do encounter an unvaccinated person who does have the virus, you have an unknown but low chance of catching it yourself, particularly if you are young and healthy.  And if you do catch it, your vaccinated reaction is likely to be mild.   Particularly if you consider that, on top of the inexpensive ivermectin treatment that has been available all along, there are now a range of newly developed treatments.  (These shiny new medical baubles – one of them from Merck, the inventor of ivermectin – are available at a high price to governments dumb enough to pay for them, rather than conduct clinical trials of existing off-patent treatments as proposed by the Doherty Institute in April 2020.

Probably, there will be more vaccinated people carrying the virus than unvaccinated people.  So, it may well be that, statistically, if you are going to get COVID, it will most likely come from a vaccinated person, even allowing for the fact that they are generally reckoned less likely to transmit it than the unjabbed.

If you choose to remain unvaccinated and you contract the disease and even die, that is your prerogative.   But should you be an outcast from society because you pose an infinitesimal risk of death to someone else?  Chairman Dan has asked ‘why should the unvaccinated benefit from the sacrifice of the vaccinated’ or words to that effect.  This is a bit like presenting white feathers to men in civilian clothes in London in 1917.  Shameful and mindless.

I am not saying people won’t get COVID, and I’m not saying they won’t die.  Life is a lottery.  I suspect a vaccinated person is less likely to die from COVID than to die in a car accident or to die from influenza.  That this has to be spelt out is an indictment of the scare tactics used by governments and bureaucrats and the abject failure of the MSM to do its job.

By the way, I have a piece in The Spectator‘s Flat White blog about vaccine mandates. The comments thread of that article, as they often do, has veered somewhat off topic and discusses, in some detail, the vaccines themselves.  Those comments, particularly those of rosross, are worth reading.

20 comments
  • seagull

    Peter, look at the numbers. In the last 3 months 992 COVID related deaths in Australia, mostly in Victoria and NSW. 95% of these deaths were in unvaccinated people. Although almost 90% of the population in NSW and VIC are fully vaccinated, deaths are continuing at a steady rate. This is likely to continue until every person in these states has been vaccinated or had COVID. The death toll among the vaccinated will continue, perhaps for some months. This is a measure of the success of the anti-vax crowd, that they can persuade 5-10% of the population to take the much more risky path of acquiring immunity through Covid infection, rather than getting vaccinated. Get rid of all the conspiracy theories, false claims that the vaccine is dangerous and experimental, false claims about the incidence of complications of vaccination, whinging about vaccine mandates, false claims about rights, etc etc. Your refusal to get vaccinated is irresponsible.

  • Peter OBrien

    I have been vaccinated.

  • lbloveday

    I reckon my wife is in denial. She understandably wants to see her family, and that can realistically only be via plane trip, so she got jabbed.
    She went into the station with a temperature of 35.7, which may seem low, but is normal for her. Back home she was 36.9 and in the weeks since it’s ranged between 36.8 and 37.1, unprecedented, and she’s been sweating a lot and feeling fatigued (and she’s a little grumpy).
    Nothing to do with the jab, her friends assure her, they were ok, so it must be the weather, or she’s picked up a cold or…. anything but the jab is the cause.

  • rosross

    As epidemiology chair at Deakin University, Professor Catherine Bennett, puts it: “Once you get to 90 and 95 (per cent), you have such a small population of unvaccinated people who could contribute to transmission dynamics in a major way. It becomes even lower over summer as more people are exposed. There’s not enough to undermine what we’re trying to achieve or to overload hospitals.”

    This is utterly irrational. The Jabs do not prevent infection or transmission and this just pretends that they do. Meanwhile hospitals in heavily Jabbed countries are filling up with the Jabbed.

    The Jabs are not preventing hospitalisation or death and in fact, those questions were never asked in the minimal studies done before releasing them provisionally.

    Quote: Hospital admissions and deaths from covid-19 are simply too uncommon in the population being studied for an effective vaccine to demonstrate statistically significant differences in a trial of 30 000 people. The same is true of its ability to save lives or prevent transmission: the trials are not designed to find out. BMJ.

    Studies indicate that antibodies were still being created 6 weeks after the first dose of vaccine but many countries didn’t wait that long before the second dose.

    Simply put, antibody tests are not a true measure of how protected you are from COVID-19. There are mechanisms of protection that will not show up in a test, like how your T-cells will respond when exposed to the virus.

    https://www.utphysicians.com/covid-19-antibody-test-not-necessarily-an-indicator-of-immunity/

    Will covid-19 vaccines save lives? Current trials aren’t designed to tell us BMJ 2020; 371 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m4037 (Published 21 October 2020)

    Peter Doshi, associate editor The world has bet the farm on vaccines as the solution to the pandemic, but the trials are not focused on answering the questions many might assume they are. Peter Doshi reports But what will it mean exactly when a vaccine is declared “effective”? To the public this seems fairly obvious.

    “The primary goal of a covid-19 vaccine is to keep people from getting very sick and dying,” a National Public Radio broadcast said bluntly.6 Peter Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine in Houston, said, “Ideally, you want an antiviral vaccine to do two things . . . first, reduce the likelihood you will get severely ill and go to the hospital, and two, prevent infection and therefore interrupt disease transmission.”7

    Yet the current phase III trials are not actually set up to prove either (table 1). None of the trials currently under way are designed to detect a reduction in any serious outcome such as hospital admissions, use of intensive care, or deaths. Nor are the vaccines being studied to determine whether they can interrupt transmission of the virus.

  • exuberan

    ‘appeal to their consideration to others’ Long Bow

  • Peter Smith

    Peter you seem to take it as given that the unvaccinated person is more likely to pass on the disease than the vaccinated person. True, that is the current conventional wisdom but I think we should be skeptical at this stage. Look at these latest figures from the UK’s Health Security Agency surveillance report over the four weeks from about mid-October to mid-November:
    Cases per 100,000 (vaccinated vs unvaccinated)
    • Under 18 years (502 vs 2229)
    • 18-29 years (757 vs 838)
    • 30-39 years (1373 vs 967)
    • 40-49 years (2023 vs 934)
    • 50-59 years (1423 vs 697)
    • 60-69 years (1016 vs 504)
    • 70-79 years (538 vs 423)
    • 80 plus years (321 vs 410)
    A mixed bag.
    To Seagull, a refusal to eat and/or drink less fills up hospitals beds and is irresponsible.

  • Peter OBrien

    Hi Peter Smith,
    You are right that we must be skeptical. That is the starting premise of my article which is couched to show that, even by the conventional wisdom, vaccine mandates are illogical and have no place in our society.

  • seagull

    Peter Smith, these figures mean nothing. They are simply the reflection of the widespread prevalence of the Covid virus and the number of tests in each age group. The evidence of the effectiveness is in the proportion of persons admitted to hospital and ICU who are unvaccinated – 95%, here and UK.. Dig a bit deeper into the UK Covid outcomes and you will find the data.
    Peter O’Brien, I am not sure what the point of your article is. Are you happy to see the unvaccinated die in such numbers?

  • Peter Smith

    Covid deaths in UK among those 60 years and over in the four weeks I referred to before. Unvaccinated 563. Vaccinated 3,235.

  • Peter OBrien

    Seagull, perhaps you should read the article again. My point is pretty clear if you remove from your mind the preconception that I am opposed to the vaccine.

  • Claude James

    Now ask why there has been no serious attempt by any TV show, even in the tiny media sector that is nominally on the side of empiricism, to have a panel of virus scientists explain the ins and outs of this virus, it variants, and its mutations-
    -and why the complexities and ambiguities of the infection process and why there is such variation and range in the kinds and degrees of symptoms among infected people.
    Reason why not? Answer: Too hard for 99.99% of civilians to understand, and it’s just too scary. And there we also have the reason why Western Civ is fast collapsing:
    Things that actually matter are too hard for most people to understand, and even when the truth is glimpsed, it’s so darn scary that the result will be utter panic and full breakdown of all the systems required keep the weak-minded/weak-emotioned populace in food, booze, and entertainment.

  • Peter OBrien

    “The Jabs do not prevent infection or transmission and this just pretends that they do.” Rosross, you are right, I overlooked this point. I defer to your extensive knowledge and research on these vaccines, but I did base my premise (possibly naively – since my own mantra is ‘don’t believe anything’) on the claim that vaccinated people are less likely to spread and contract the virus than the unvaccinated. If that is not true, then there is even less justification for vaccine mandates.

  • mike2

    “…In the last 3 months 992 COVID related deaths in Australia, mostly in Victoria and NSW. 95% of these deaths were in unvaccinated people…”

    Seagull, Context is everything.
    Unvaccinated aged around 82, many with co-morbidities.
    NSW and I assume that Victoria was similar, the average age of deaths of the unvaccinated was 82.
    The median age of mortality from covid, Australia wide is 86.

    “..The data from New South Wales (NSW) health department out late on Monday showed only 11% of people out of 412 who died from the Delta outbreak over four months through early October were fully vaccinated. The average age of those deaths was 82…”
    https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/australias-nsw-says-unvaccinated-16-times-more-likely-die-covid-19-2021-11-09/

    “..The median age of all cases is 37 years (range: 0 to 106 years).
    The median age of deaths is 86 years (range: 27 to 106 years)…”
    https://www.health.gov.au/resources/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-at-a-glance-15-july-2021

  • Francois Stallbom

    Covid has the same characteristics as the climate cult:
    https://www.thecogent.org/post/they-live-amongst-us-anatomy-of-a-cult

  • ianl

    And right on cue, NSW Health Authorities (those who do not want restrictions lifted in 2 weeks) announce the “discovery” of … Omicron. All the way from Africa via a commercial flight.

    Backflipping, reneging, backtracking, crabwalking. Watch this space.

    Claude James (above). Yes, we’ve said so often enough. A very large proportion of the population are scientifically illiterate and mathematically innumerate, with no intention of changing that. In fact, most people become obdurate when this becomes apparent.

    And now Morrison has enabled the wowsers, the dibber-dobbers, to chase comments such as these off the websites – too “trolly”. This is meant to reduce public criticism of him from his core vote, to shore up his backbench. He is a despicable disappointment.

  • mike2

    Not sure why my comment never made it.. 🙂
    Seagull, Context is everything.
Yes the majority were Unvaccinated.
    The average age of those cohorts for COVID deaths was around 82, many with co-morbidities.
I assume that Victoria was similar to NSW.
The median age of mortality from COVID, Australia wide is 86.

    “..The data from New South Wales (NSW) health department out late on Monday showed only 11% of people out of 412 who died from the Delta outbreak over four months through early October were fully vaccinated. The average age of those deaths was 82…”
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/australias-nsw-says-unvaccinated-16-times-more-likely-die-covid-19-2021-11-09/

    “..The median age of all cases is 37 years (range: 0 to 106 years).
The median age of covid deaths is 86 years (range: 27 to 106 years)…”
https://www.health.gov.au/resources/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-at-a-glance-15-july-2021

  • pgang

    Peter Smith, you have written a few well-reasoned articles on statistical anomalies related to covid-hysteria. You may already be aware that statisticians have shown that a proper look at the age-weighted mortality data from the UK shows that for the vast majority of the population there is no benefit at all from being vaccinated. The vaccine does not reduce the chance of mortality, when the statistics are read properly. Simpson’s Paradox seems to be at play here.
    If any sanity returns in future, the judgement passed on this madness is not going to be a good look for us.
    https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/uk-data-shows-the-vaccines-are-not

  • pgang

    seagull, you should take some of your own advice and actually look at the data properly. Your own opinion is nothing but a reflection of the MSM trolling industry.
    ‘Peter O’Brien, I am not sure what the point of your article is. Are you happy to see the unvaccinated die in such numbers?’ With a patronising and woke comment like that your authoritarian agenda is clearly on display.

  • pgang

    Peter O’Brien, I’ve just come across this fascinating treatise which makes the following bold claim: ‘
    ‘almost everyone who dies from COVID-19 has a critical immunodeficiency or autoimmune disorder.’
    If true then:
    ‘This throws all risk-benefit analyses of vaccines out the window for healthy individuals.’
    The vaccines may actually ‘introduce new levels of immunity dysfunction.’
    But hey, this is all just conspiracy theory madness according to the all-knowing guardians of truth: our journalists, bureaucrats, and politicians.
    https://roundingtheearth.substack.com/p/these-vaccines-are-ineffective-a

  • Phillip

    Seagull, to get vaccinated is irresponsible.
    By getting vaccinated leads to a gutless society with zero mental and physical toughness.

    Seagull, to get vaccinated is irresponsible.
    Mandating an experiment, pays no respect to what our countrymen fought & died for against the Nazis in WWII.

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