QED

Run the Numbers, Survey the Folly

As of May 22, Australia had suffered 7,088 cases of COVID-19 and 102 people who died with the virus, the majority were males between 70 and 89. A sizeable proportion of those admitted to hospitals’ intensive care unitss were suffering from comorbidity issues such as cardiac disease and diabetes. Australia’s Chief Medical Officer (CMO) has told a Senate Inquiry that the Australian government’s actions in locking down the economy saved 14,000 lives.

In the meantime, Camilla Stoltenberg, director of Norway’s public health agency, has confessed:

Our assessment now, and I find that there is a broad consensus in relation to the reopening, was that one could probably achieve the same effect – and avoid part of the unfortunate repercussions – by not closing. But, instead, staying open with precautions to stop the spread.

The cost to the Australian economy of the global pandemic could be as high as one thousand billion dollars with an additional direct cost to the taxpayer of $260 billion this year alone. It will be a while before our Prime Minister and the premiers admit the lockdown was entirely unnecessary and unjustified.

  1. Rampant alarmism

With the support of 289 or more top economists, four economists, Edmond, Hamilton, Holden and Preston (2020) deny “that there is a trade-off between the public health and economic aspects of the crisis.” I answered this here. Two of the four, Richard Holden and Bruce Preston estimate that without lockdowns and similar interventions, but presumably with voluntary social distancing, 90 per cent of our population of 25.5 million would have resulted in 225,000 deaths, based on an assumed fatality rate of 1 per cent, and yielding an incredible rate of 882 deaths per 100,000 residents.

The claimed deaths saved are higher than argued by Australia’s CMO by a factor of 16 times. The same methodology yields nearly three million COVID deaths in the U.S. and seventy million deaths globally. But is this simply fanciful alarmism and fearmongering designed to frighten all Australians into acceptance of continuing lockdowns and restrictions on normal life, or is it an astute economic analysis?

If one were to accept the Holden/Preston analysis, with an assumed valuation of A$4.9 million per whole of life, the cost of not locking down is placed at A$1.1 trillion. As Paul Frijters has pointed out, deaths are largely confined to the elderly and infirm with very low life expectancy, reducing this outlandish estimate by 95 per cent to a slightly more plausible A$55 billion. Applying the same methodology to the CMO’s more conservative estimate yields a more modest figure of $3.4 billion in comparison with the Commonwealth’s outlay in excess of $260 billion. This is an expenditure of $76 dollars for every dollar saved!

These current Holden/Preston death rate estimates are extreme even relative to discredited March 16 forecasts made by Neil Ferguson of Imperial College, London,  of 510,000 UK deaths and 2.2 million US deaths. These forecasts, with little if any scientific justification, prompted massive lockdowns in both the Britain and America, and in much of the rest of the world including Australia.

As of the date of writing, the UK had experienced 34,600 deaths (54 per 100,000) associated with the virus and approaching 100,000 in the U.S. (30 per 100,000), with the global total 340,876 as of May 22, a very modest rate of 3.7 deaths per 100,000 so far. This is less than 0.5% of the deaths projected by Holden/Preston. Why are these death rates so much higher than Australia’s? The U.K., with tens of millions of new arrivals in the last few months, is only now commencing mild quarantining arrangements and similarly, unlike Australia, quarantining arrangements and bans on all non-resident entry in the U.S. did not take place.

By contrast, the far worse Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918-19 that killed 50 million people worldwide resulted in 12,000 deaths in Australia with only quarantining and social distancing and no lockdowns. This represented a death rate of 236 per 100,000 — 0.59 per cent of the 40 per cent of the population that caught the flu. This death rate from by far the worst pandemic to hit the globe in over 100 years is benign compared to the Holden/Preston figure of 882 COVID-19 deaths per 100,000, a factor 3.7 times higher. By contrast, the Spanish Flu was indiscriminate — killing the young and healthy as well as the vulnerable. By contrast,  COVID-19 casualties are largely confined to the elderly and those with severe co-morbidity factors.

  1. International quarantining seems to be effective in the short-term

What this analysis does not recognize is that, like Taiwan, Australia is an island nation. While both nations have similar populations, Taiwan is much closer to the Wuhan origin and epicentre of the virus. Taiwan began testing arrivals from Wuhan for flu symptoms from December 31, 2019, but Australia did not restrict access from China until February 1, with a further ban on all non-resident entry introduced on March 20.

Today Taiwan has 441 cases and seven deaths. Hence their infection rate was 6 per cent of ours and their death rate 7 per cent. Moreover, their far superior result, at least from a short-term perspective, was achieved simply by strict quarantining, banning of cruise ships, testing and tracing of carriers with voluntary social distancing, and handwashing. As a result, their economy is suffering less than many others, with their exports expanding.

The Australian death rate is 0.4 per 100,000 residents, compared with 51 for the UK; France 43; and the US, 29. While it is likely that the 100-fold higher rate in Europe could be partly due to higher population density and more adverse climatic factors inclusive of winter, a more plausible explanation is the ability of Australia to impose quarantining earlier and more effectively than in Europe.

  1. The ineffectiveness of lockdown

Despite the slowness with which Australia closed its borders and mindful of the Ruby Princess debacle, infections in Australia peaked prior to the introduction of severe lockdowns and domestic border closures that were always completely unnecessary. The latter were never supported by the Australian government on medical or other grounds and seem in contravention of Section 92 of the Constitution. In the United States, the most common comprehensive social distancing policy adopted is a shelter-in-place order (SIPO) which requires residents to remain in their homes for all but essential activities.

Dave, Friedson, Matsuzawa, and Sabia analyse the difference in the infection rate and death rate between the 42 states which imposed SIPO laws and the eight Republican states which did not. The study finds that lockdown was effective in reducing the number of COVID-19 detected cases by 44 per cent but were not able to estimate a statistically significant lower death toll, other than noting that it appeared to be lower.

The study is unable to explain the much better record of some states, such as Florida, that did not embrace lockdowns as opposed to states, such as New York, which did. To date, New York City with lockdown in place has suffered 16,565 confirmed COVID-19  deaths and an additional 4,749 probables, which is a rate of 113 per 100,000 and way exceeds even the rate experienced by Belgium, the country which is worst in the world. Florida has suffered 2,233 deaths, a rate of 11 deaths per 100,000, and while still worse than Australia’s performance it is good by comparison with many similar US states that did lock down.

The differences are in part due to philosophy.  New York’s Governor Andrew Cuomo declared a universal policy: “We need everyone to be safe, or no one can be safe,” in locking down all “non-essential” activity, despite not closing either the airports or mass transit. COVID-19 sufferers in New York were forced to return to age-care homes to free-up beds in hospitals. As a result, many thousands of the elderly died in these infected homes.

By contrast, Florida Governor DeSantis prohibited visitors to nursing and age-care homes and urged the most vulnerable to stay home. Florida is both more humid and less congested than New York City, perhaps accounting for some of the vastly lower death rate. But the far older population of Florida retirees makes the state even more vulnerable than that of New York City, where very high proportion of the deaths were confined to the elderly.

In particular, the very nature of lockdowns seems to be designed to promote more deaths in certain areas. People confined in cramped and poorly ventilated indoor spaces with insufficient exercise opportunities and limited access to sunlight are naturally going to become more vulnerable to flu-like viruses. This was made worse in Australia as nearly all hospital beds were emptied for COVID-19 sufferers who never showed up. Over 7,000 respirators have been provided but less than 20 ever used. Was this the precautionary principle in action or simply panic?

Contrast confinement on a cruise ship and being free to enjoy healthy beach and ocean exercise in warm sunlight. Huge resources in the form of police helicopters, multiple police boats, high fencing along much of the coastline and shores lined with police officers, were used in a hugely expensive and futile attempt to drive socially distanced swimmers and surfers out of the water in many parts of Australia.

Perhaps in a sustained effort to protect prevalent dolphins from the threat of COVID-19, socially-distancing surfers were driven from the water at McKenzie’s Bay, near Bondi, on numerous occasions by police presumably animated by the need to protect animal rights.

Another study, by Brzezinski, Deiana, Kecht, and Van Dijcke (2020), using a panel dataset based on 40 million smartphone devices across the US, combined with detailed data on state- and county-level government policies, finds that compulsory lockdowns increased the time spent at home by up to 39 per cent but voluntary social distancing also increased the time spent at home. They find that higher socio-economic groups were more likely to respond to physical separation advice and recommend voluntary distancing as being far more cost-effective than lockdowns. However, they do consider stronger measures in areas where voluntary response is problematic.

Hence, like Norway, the evidence from Taiwan and the US does not indicate that lockdown is either necessary or is more effective than voluntary social distancing in combination with protecting the vulnerable, in reducing COVID-19 morbidity. Two other South-East Asian countries, South Korea and Japan, urged voluntary social distancing and introduced strict tracing and testing but did not enforce lockdown. South Korea has suffered 263 deaths so far, a rate of 0.51 per 100,000 — comparable to Australia but perhaps with a lower economic cost; Japan has suffered 749 deaths, a rate of 0.6 per 100,000, and also comparable to Australia’s with lower social cost.

Edmond, Holden and Preston cite the absence of mandatory lockdown in Sweden as an indication of what might have happened in Australia if we had followed the same path.

On the face of it, the Swedish experience does not look spectacular in the short-term, with 3,925 deaths to date or a rate of 39 per 100,000 residents. While this is far lower than many other European countries that did lock down, such as the UK and France, and less than half that of Belgium with its rate of 81 per 100,000, it is far higher than Australia’s and even its neighbour, Denmark, which not only locked down but also instigated severe quarantine restrictions.

What accounts for the apparently poorer performance of Sweden relative to its near neighbour in the very short term? Most likely, it has little to do with the difference in lock-down policies but could be accounted for by the fact that, unlike its neighbour, it kept its borders open while at the same time, and like Australia, it provides generous public subsidies to displaced workers and firms. Hence it is not surprising that its economic costs are not obviously that much lower than Australia’s, and the initial death rate at least, higher due to the absence of quarantining.

Hence the evidence indicates that Australia’s initially excellent COVID-19 record so far is due to relatively early quarantining of international borders and voluntary social distancing. Compulsory lockdown came late in the piece and has made very little difference other than greatly increasing economic costs and adding to the feeling of social isolation, increased threat of family violence, and the appearance at least of home detention.

It is true that people could venture out for exercise so long as they stayed confined to their local area and did not sit down in the park or anywhere else, while denied access to beaches, oceans, pools, gyms, holiday homes, hotels, pubs, restaurants, community sport, and all forms of live entertainment and travel.

How easily are people convinced that the government has the right to remove most of their freedoms on no more than a whim!

  1. Restrictive measures not justified on medical grounds seem to be there to frighten us

Most of the unpopular measures such as school closure, closure of beaches and water access, bans on sitting on park benches while still social distancing, bans on golf and fishing, bans on entry to a number of states, etc., were instigated by some state premiers contrary to medical advice provided to the Commonwealth Government. CMO, Dr Jeanette Young, stated: “While evidence showed schools were not a high-risk environment for the spread of the virus, closing them down would help people understand the gravity of the situation”.  In other words, people needed to be frightened “for their own good”, a task which Holden/Preston have taken up with alacrity.

Can one argue that this peculiar medical advice to close safe schools was an improvement on the frightening medicine provided to patients in Florence during the plague of 1629 consisting of “oil of crushed scorpions in Greek wine”? Closing schools has contributed to the massive economic burden on the states’ economies and Australia’s rapid decline in educational standards, while the scorpion diet was inflicted on a relatively small number of survivors of a pandemic that occurred four hundred year’s ago.

  1. Incremental cost of lockdowns over voluntary distancing

Estimating the cost of compulsory lockdown in Australia, state border closures and bans on travel is difficult as voluntary social distancing would have reduced domestic travel and use of venues such as dining in restaurants, clubs, and cinemas, in any case. International travel restrictions would have reduced revenues for the university sector from foreign students and the international tourism industry would still have suffered.

Of course, much of this extreme voluntary social distancing was doubtless excessive and not warranted on medical grounds but was promoted by extreme alarmism and fearmongering from media, academic economists, public servant and all forms of government. Those sections of the community not immediately subject to job loss.

Holden/Preston assume a 10 per cent fall in GDP in just one year, 2020, with no long-term effects and a very conservative cost of the COVID-19 crisis of $180 billion, but they argue, inconsistently, that this grossly overestimates the cost of shutting down, as voluntary social distancing would have been costly even without forced closure of much business activity. Might not voluntary social distancing have saved 225,000 lives even without lockdown?

My Colleague Paul Frijters argues persuasively that the true cost of the global pandemic on Australia is likely to be six times higher than that provided by Holden/Preston, making it $1,080 billion.

Holden/Preston, having already argued that voluntary social distancing was going to cost 225,000 lives without forced closure, it is hardly consistent to argue that half the total cost costs would have been incurred anyway. Hence, according to the Holden/Preston analysis, we are left with a net cost of $90 billion from the shutdown but no sign of any benefit as voluntary social distancing, international quarantining, testing, and tracing would have done the job anyway at far lower cost. Their entire $1.1 trillion, or more credible $55 billion, benefit from lockdown is vacuous.

  1. The payment of $260 billion to stop people working is far from costless

Holden/Preston then argue that a $320 billion (16.4 per cent of GDP) cost of supporting the economy during the compulsory shutdown is not really a cost but simply a transfer of resources from one part of society to another. Since it is paid for initially by borrowing, the immediate impact is on the young and future generations. While this figure comes from Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, a $60 billion overstatement in the Government’s JobKeeper estimate means that it is actually lower, $260 billion, once this error is corrected.

So we learn that this sizeable boost to the social security budget to pay about three and one half million  people to quit work and perhaps do nothing at home comes at no cost, other than “the economic distortions coming from raising the revenue to service the spending.” In fact, we learn from Holden/Preston that this cost is likely to be “tiny” as it will simply raise our international debt obligations at a time when real interest rates are low.

Suppose we have two otherwise identical workers with each creating equal value of $1,500 per fortnight, but one is employed in an “essential service” and the other is not.  The latter is placed out of work by shutdown orders and receives a JobKeeper payment of $1,500 per fortnight. Not only does GDP fall by $1,500 per fortnight due to the forced lockdown but the essential worker is now taxed $1,500 per fortnight to support the now unemployed person in idleness.

 Since he cannot afford to pay the tax, the essential worker joins the inessential worker in idleness. The cost of the lockdown has now doubled to $3,000 per fortnight. Hence, I cannot agree that a policy of paying people not to work is “costless”.

If adding debt is essentially “costless”, I am puzzled as to why we have taxes at all, since these are highly distorting and come at huge cost. Why not go one step further with this costless funding and pay the entire nation not to work? What is wrong with zero GDP? Surely, everyone would be better off if we exploited unlimited international borrowing capacity. Despite what one might infer from these statements, taxpayers will need to be slugged this additional A$260 billion cost in a year in which the budget was supposed to be in surplus for the first time in decades.

One can identify some benefit from JobKeeper subsidies as they retain a link between employer and employee. It is the lockdowns which have forced about three and one half million people into idleness. According to Australia’s CMO, this outlay has saved 14,000 lives at a cost of a sizeable $19 million per life, but in reality, probably close to zero lives.

  1. Payments to stop Australians working burden every Australian with a debt of $10,200

Yes, in a world in which resources are essentially free, why worry about who is going to meet the largely unnecessary bill of A$260 billion or $10,200 for every Australian man, women, and child? There is an upside for the non-economists in our midst. If resources are free, then there is no need to employ any economists and nor to train them. I find it surprising that a large number of top economists should argue, in effect, that they are either redundant or perhaps should be made redundant.

  1. Should we be concerned with the additional 750 to 1,500 suicides each year?

According to the May 7, 2020, statement from the Australian Medical Association, between an extra 750 and 1,500 more suicides may occur annually, in addition to the 3,000 plus lives that are lost to suicide already every year, due to the expected increase in job loss and business failure arising from the shutdown. Could simple fear of the virus itself generate a sizeable loss of life from suicide? Very unlikely. The virus could have been presented simply as yet another form of flu that would affect a small vulnerable portion of the population but would be extremely mild or unnoticeable for the bulk of the population.

Holden/Preston argue that these effects are small relative to the mass deaths of 225,000 people that they envisage but are unable to justify. Moreover, from the perspective of deaths, they envisage economic crises as being beneficial as there are fewer deaths in the workplace and on the roads. Yes, almost certainly the mortality rate has fallen greatly during the COVID-19 pandemic, with millions of people forced out of jobs and travel largely banned. Would they wish to live in a COVID-19 world permanently, or do they favour more Great Depressions with 50 per cent unemployment since fewer die on the roads or in the workplace? Holden/Preston have a simple message: ‘The shutdown wins’ and they believe that there are high risks from relaxation of restrictions in the absence of a vaccine.

To the contrary, Holden/Preston are simply alarmist, frightening the public with entirely discredited pandemic modelling in which they argue that mortality from COVID-19 is far worse than the devastating Spanish Flu of a century ago and would kill nearly 250,000 Australians were the economy not locked down. Yet the current world COVID-19 virus death toll would have to rise by a factor of 202 times to reach their estimate of seventy million global deaths in the absence of lockdown.

  1. At great economic cost, Australia has failed to generate herd immunity

It would be a mistake to think that Australia and Taiwan, and all the other countries that have employed similar strategies, have got off lightly from COVID-19 by the simple expedient of banning the entry of non-citizens and early quarantining. Quarantining is exceedingly disruptive and impossible to sustain for any length of time.

It is likely Sweden will emerge from COVID-19 better prepared than many other countries due to the creation of at least some herd immunity, which does not rely on everyone being exposed to the virus. Rather, it relies on enough of the young and healthy being exposed with sufficient antibodies such that the elderly and vulnerable are protected from it.  This would be especially important if it proves impossible to develop a vaccine in reasonable time. While Sweden may suffer because of the COVID-induced decline in the global economy, unlike most economies it has not deliberately forced millions into potential penury.

We can be sure that Governor Cuomo in New York and authorities in Belgium have exposed a sizeable portion of their populations to the COVID-19 virus making “second wave” attacks less likely when borders reopen, as they must. However, they will never be “winners” in an economic sense because, unlike Sweden, they locked down the most productive while not taking care of the vulnerable.

  1. Conclusion

Our actual current death toll of 102 would have been far lower if we had earlier implemented the quarantining, tracing, and testing methods so successfully employed by Taiwan with their voluntary social distancing. Forced lockdown in a highly responsible society such as Australia’s yields no lives saved but huge and devastating economic costs and future deaths arising from economic despair. According to Australia’s CMO, some lives have been saved at a cost of $19 million per life, but this is a gross understatement of the cost per life. The sooner we cease the lockdowns and travel restrictions, while retaining voluntary social distancing and protecting the vulnerable, the better.

Peter L. Swan AO FRSN FASSA is Professor of Finance at the University of New South Wales-Sydney. He wishes to thank Gigi Foster and Paul Frijters for useful comments.

References:

Brzezinski, Adam, Guido Deiana, Valentin Kecht, and David Van Dijcke, 2020, The COVID-19 Pandemic: Government vs. Community Action Across the United States, INET Oxford Working Paper No. 2020-06, 18th April.

https://www.inet.ox.ac.uk/files/BrzezinskiKechtDeianaVanDijcke_18042020_CEPR_2.pdf

 Dave, Dhaval M., Andrew I. Friedson, Kyutaro Matsuzawa, and Joseph J. Sabia, 2020, When do shelter-in-place orders fight COVID-19 best? NBER Working Paper 27091. May. https://www.nber.org/papers/w27091.pdf

Edmond, Chris, Steve Hamilton, Richard Holden and Bruce Preston, April 19, 2020, An Open Letter from 289 Australian Economists on Tradeoffs During the COVID-19 Crisis. http://covid19openletter.net/

Edmond, Chris, Richard Holden and Bruce Preston, “The sound economics behind Australia’s health-first COVID response.” The Sydney Morning Herald, May 14, 2020. https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-sound-economics-behind-australia-s-health-first-covid-response-20200514-p54st7.html

Frijters, Paul, 2020, On Corona/Covid-19, herd immunity and WELLBY tradeoffs: key predictions and numbers. Posted May 14. https://clubtroppo.com.au/2020/05/14/on-corona-covid-19-herd-immunity-and-wellby-tradeoffs-key-predictions-and-numbers/

Frijters, Paul, 2020, The corona cost-benefit analyses of Richard Holden, Bruce Preston and Neil Bailey: ooops! https://clubtroppo.com.au/2020/05/18/the-corona-cost-benefit-analyses-of-richard-holden-bruce-preston-and-neil-bailey-ooops/. Posted May 18.

Frydenberg, Josh Media Release, IMF expects Australia’s economic growth to rebound,

https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/josh-frydenberg-2018/media-releases/imf-expects-australias-economic-growth-rebound

Henderson, John, 2019, Florence Under Siege: Surviving Plague in an Early Modern City, Yale University Press, New Haven and London.

Holden, Richard and Bruce Preston, “The costs of the shutdown are overestimated – they’re outweighed by its $1 trillion benefit.” The Conversation, May 16, 2020. https://theconversation.com/the-costs-of-the-shutdown-are-overestimated-theyre-outweighed-by-its-1-trillion-benefit-138303

Lynch, Lidia, 2020, Jeannette Young: who is the woman leading Queensland’s fight against COVID-19? Brisbane Times, April 30. https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/jeannette-young-who-is-the-woman-leading-queensland-s-fight-against-covid-19-20200406-p54hmd.html

McCauley, Dana, Australia’s coronavirus response avoided about 14,000 deaths, Chief Medical Officer says, Sydney Morning Herald, May 26, 2020.

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-s-coronavirus-response-avoided-about-14-000-deaths-chief-medical-officer-says-20200526-p54wm4.html

Nelson, Frazer, 2020, Norway health chief: lockdown was not needed to tame Covid, The Spectator UK, May 28.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/norway-health-chief-lockdown-was-not-needed-to-tame-covid

Swan, Peter, 2020, These ‘strong measures’ are going to send us broke, The Australian, May 13, https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/these-strong-measures-are-going-to-send-us-broke/news-story/695ef4730a0bf72085f66d2f34597863

 

20 comments
  • Alice Thermopolis

    If adding debt is essentially “costless”, I am puzzled as to why we have taxes at all, since these are highly distorting and come at huge cost.”

    Indeed. As for the “costless” rhetoric, the RBA – in cahoots with the government – has been debasing the “cost of money” (interest rate) until it is now virtually “worthless”, reducing it to little more than a token or cryptocurrency – and with no exit strategy.
    RBA’s primary function today is manipulating the yield on government bonds – issued to pay for its covid-caper – so that it does not rise above 0.25%.
    Great for the government. Too bad about folk who actually have savings. They are collateral damage in a bigger game.

  • Citizen Kane

    Perhaps another contributing factor to the UKs’ CFR, is the fact that it would appear at least 4 million people have been exposed directly to the virus rather than the current official 267 000, according to recently released ONS (UK) data from a large antibody seroprevalence study. This is a CFR of 0.86% – less than 1/20th the current official figure. This adjustment alone blows Holden/Preston’s assumptions out of the water and overall transmission is likely now to be even higher than in this one recent study.

  • Michael

    Elizabeth Beare, Michael’s Wife
    Opening up our international borders will very soon become a major issue in both economy and politics. Currently we seem to have moved to a hotel quarantine (land cruise) situation for incomers, which is expensive for taxpayers and may solve nothing. It is unpleasant or even dangerous for the incarcerated in non-balcony situations exposed to cross infection via airconditioning which could happen at any stage in that two weeks, Self-quarantine at home would suit many returning travellers much more. Some better-thought-out options, perhaps a range of them for international travellers to and from differing locations, would encourage things back to some semblance of normality regarding international tourism and business travel.
    All that said, given the asymptomatic nature of many of those infected, Cov-2 is going to be in our population for the foreseeable future and quarantining only the obviously ill might in the end be the most sensible way to go. Herd immunity (if it exists to any extent for this disease) will have to be relied on sometime given that a vaccine is not yet available and may only provide limited protection anyway. Eradication seems unlikely, diminution may be possible, but attenuation of the virus to a minor cold status is our best hope.

  • ianl

    I’m grateful that the example of Taiwan is finally taken seriously and is openly discussed. Still I expect the MSM will run dead on it. They are despicable in most ways.

    Taiwan, along with South Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore, were prepared since SARS-1. Our medico bureaucracy/political groups were complacent and slack over the last 10 years, despite sharing the same viral research information and international laboratory collaboration as that country group. These countries closed international borders, (anti) socially distanced and persisted with hygiene protocols. They did this very early and with no subsequent need to destroy their economies with lockdowns.

    Ausralia held off closing sea borders until the universities had a fair whack of fee-paying external students. [That bit of hypocrisy showed up in spike infections in the densely populated areas immediately north and south of the Bridge.] Cruise ship protocols were poorly handled too. Even so, closing normal activity, forcing people to stay inside their houses or units, enforcing this with disgraceful police intrusions was not needed.

    This is not hindsight. The example of Taiwan shows that up. Our heroes simply took no notice of their advice … for 10 years.

    Now we have the ridiculous spectacle of medico bureaucrats disagreeing with each other while 5th rate politicians and their public servants manipulate internal activities and borders to try and suit their own electoral prospects.

  • ianl

    > ” … epicentre of the virus” [quote from the article here]

    Nonetheless, despite the accuracy of Peterr Swan’s article, the widespread *misuse* (abuse) of the word “epicentre” is offensive to a geoscientist. Epicentre has a very precise meaning, honed by hundreds of years of research effort into the geology of the planet. It has a z value to it (ie. vertical) as it plots the surface point of a deeper tectonic event.

    Abusing it by applying it only to an x,y point actually prods the general population into thinking that earthquakes are caused by surface events, not those at deoth in the crust. And the general population, as is the MSM, abysmally ignorant of geoscience. Buttressing that ignorance is offensive.

  • Stephen Due

    Both Anders Tegnell, State Epidemiologist of Sweden, and the former incumbent Johan Geisecke, expressly stated in a number of interviews that lock-downs are not only inefficient but also incompatible with the democratic ethos of their nation.
    Similarly, in a memorable early announcement, South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem said she would not impose a forced lock-down on her people because it would conflict with her duty to uphold the state and national constitutions.
    It seems to me that such a principled appeal to democratic freedoms is at least as important as the utilitarian arguments presented in this article and elsewhere. This is not to detract from the usefulness of utilitarian reasoning. However in the current situation I would like to see Australians appealing to Liberty as a fundamental value underpinning our political and legal system, in opposition to lock-downs.
    Many commentators have remarked on the almost supine readiness with which Australians submitted and continue to submit to draconian measures to ‘defeat’ the virus. I think Australia would be a healthier environment for democracy if our children were taught the value of the freedoms bequeathed to them by their forebears. After all, what is democracy, if not the outcome of a fundamental commitment to Liberty as the principle that governs government?

  • Peter Sandery

    Liberty and democratic authority as well, Stephen Due. In all the commentary about the replacing of COAG, a management tool, with the ersatz National Cabinet, another management tool, I have heard but one commentator, namely Stephen Conroy even imply, let alone expand on the fact that the philosophy underlining the whole idea relies on doing away with a fundamental basis of the Westminster system of government which , like the federal system is what we are supposed to be part of if a correct reading of the appropriate basic laws is undertaken. If, like federation some want to change these systems, let’s have a fully fledged debate including voters as well as politicians, in much the same way as the wrinkles in the original federation deal were ironed out. I am sure Prof. David Flint will have something more to say on this.

  • lloveday

    Advice to anyone who may appreciate it: I have done much proof-reading (pro-bono) from HCA submissions to successful Australian books, and have found reading out loud invariably detects slips such as “severe co-mobility factors”.
    .
    The closest anyone came to finding one I’d missed was a mate gleefully emailed me when he saw my name in the acknowledgements: “Bloody hell – you proofread it and you missed the missing comma in the dedication”. I’d only been given the text, not the dedication.

  • lloveday

    Hope you read it out loud and detected my “John Laws deliberate error”.

  • IainC

    As with all crises being dealt with by bureaucrats, actions initiated to combat the crisis divide into 2 or 3 that will be useful, dozens that are in complete contradiction to the first 2 or 3, and dozens more that are pointless and simply there “because”. Chatting outside, playing lone golf, sitting on a park bench, driving around in a hermetically sealed car with a learner driver, windsurfing, are all of zero infection risk, yet are zealously (overzealously) policed. Yes Officer, I’ll come quietly. Yet I can lawfully drive to Coles, park in a swarming carpark, wander round the shop with dozens of others in close proximity, handle food that who knows how many have handled, and watch the checkout chap pick up and bag all my goods. Back off, officer. And with millions doing this per week, the number of supermarket-related breakouts is……

    (I wrote this, tongue only partly in cheek, before the lockdown..
    Deaths from current virus outbreak in Australia – 250
    Deaths from upcoming flu season – 2500
    Early deaths from years-long depression caused by current virus protection panic – 25000)

  • T B LYNCH

    ianl has a continuing obsession with “epicenter”.
    Epicentre is a word whose meaning depends on context.
    Especially in a living language like English.
    A virologist currently construes “epicenter” as Wuhan.
    Same with normal people.

  • lloveday

    Epicentre/epicenter Definitions:
    .
    My hard copy Oxford Concise:
    (2) the central point of a difficulty
    Wiktionary:
    1. The point on the land or water surface directly above the focus, or hypocentre, of an earthquake.
    2. The point on the surface of the earth directly above an underground explosion.
    3. The focal point of any activity, especially if dangerous or destructive.
    4. The geographical area in which an ongoing disaster, illness, crisis, or other destructive event is currently most severe.
    .
    Examples of context from on-line dictionaries:
    .
    Cambridge: The youth orchestra really did become a social epicentre.
    Collins: The city became the epicentre of the crisis.
    Merriam-Webster: By continually reinventing itself, Las Vegas has managed to remain a national epicenter for entertainment
    Macmillan: The first Australians evacuated from the epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, China, have touched down on Christmas Island.
    Longman: Worse still, the epicentre of labour militancy was the capital itself.

  • Peter Swan.

    I entirely agree with Stephen Due that lock down is entirely unnecessary, and most likely harmful, from even the short-term perspective of savings lives. Moreover, it is also an undemocratic assault on individual freedom as in one fell blow it strips away most of our freedoms. Essentially the nation is placed under house arrest without even the benefit of an accusation or a trial, let alone the assumption of innocence until proven guilty. Magna Carta is a long-forgotten dream. Totalitarian responses have been largely absent from far worse pandemic responses up until now. A closer reading of my article should convince Stephen that it presents far more than just utilitarian arguments, not that there is anything wrong with either utilitarian arguments that have been waylaid by “top economists” or gentle satire.

  • Biggles

    Australia and New Zealand had one advantage countries the northern hemisphere didn’t have; it was summer when the outbreak occurred. It will be interesting to see what happens as the southern winter advances. Will there be a ‘second wave’?

  • Philip

    We all scoffed when humble citizens scrambled for toilet paper. Strange that we didn’t scoff when governments and “experts” scrambled to outdo each other with trivial restrictions.
    In each case the same human instinct for panic?

  • lloveday

    From an article by Freddy Gray in Spectator (USA and Australia, both available on-line) relating the American riots to the lockdown

    “We might just be learning what happens after you shutdown whole metropolises for weeks on end. Humans are social. We are also more prone to violence when our human interactions are limited”.

  • Stephen Due

    lloveday. Many thanks for referencing the Freddy Gray article. It would not be surprising if the lock-downs have been an element in the genesis of the American riots. But one might also recall the demonstrations after Trump was elected. Antifa was in action. There were protesters with signs such as “America against Trump”, “Join the Resistance”, “This is War” and famously “Become Ungovernable”. Many conservative commentators see “Trump Derangement Syndrome” as the result of years Left-dominated state education. American history, as taught, is nothing but the onward march of exploitation, tyranny, racism, and victim-hood. So in a sense this has been brewing for several years. The Left in America and even in Australia cannot believe that Trump can be allowed to be President of America. After all, he is not like them. How dare he? Meanwhile even here in Australia the Leftist mouthpiece known as “Our ABC” has been running an anti-Trump opinion piece on its online news site virtually every single day since Trump was elected.

  • lloveday

    An interesting article on a German Government-produced 93-pages report titled “Analysis of the Crisis Management”, leaked by a “whistle-blower” who has been suspended from duty.
    .
    https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2020/05/29/german-official-leaks-report-denouncing-corona-as-global-false-alarm/

  • Max Rawnsley

    Much ground covered in Swan’s article and associated comments. Was it an over-reaction by governments? Are we too quick to claim breach of our civil liberties? Left field, but I wonder how Mill’s Utilitarian ideas would square with the response of government. They are foundational for my perspective in harm prevention without going to extremes over trivial or political beat ups. I suspect JSM would be fine given the nature of the risk that emerged. The knowledge base was scant.

    Many now portraying exceptional hindsight. There is no doubt some useful lessons should the virus return as people begin to recirculate. Is ‘safe distancing’ an invasion of our civil liberties or simply good advice like washing your hands regularly? Many of us would have grown up with this being common practice. There may have been, in retrospect, an overreaction with what we now know of the virus etc. We were not alone in reacting as we did so let us not fictionalise that the social and economic damage was entirely preventable. Trade will take a while to recover etc, given the lockdowns still in effect one way or the other.

    The comparatives with Taiwan need to be placed in context of a sovereign state living on permanent alert with a strongly developed willingness to act as a group whenever government determines a threat. Not so Australians. I wonder at the Swedish approach, a lot more died per capita, 90 times our rate, and its led to, as I understand, ‘herd’ immunity. At what price? And where is the evidence such a protection exists with corona virus?. Frankly, even if it does its late breaking news and not a solid basis for risk management.

    “Opening up our international borders will very soon become a major issue in both economy and politics” says Mrs Michael Beare. This is an issue that does demand foresight. How do we go about this and seek out a local recovery when this obvious impediment exists?

    It is doubtful our more recent experiences with this health issue will be helpful even with the private sector in a recovery mode. We will need to await other trading economies’ readiness.

  • Max Rawnsley

    German Official Leaks Report Denouncing Corona as ‘A Global False Alarm’
    Daniele Pozzati
    May 29, 2020

    Germany’s federal government and mainstream media are engaged in damage control after a report that challenges the established Corona narrative leaked from the interior ministry.

    Some of the report key passages are:

    The dangerousness of Covid-19 was overestimated: probably at no point did the danger posed by the new virus go beyond the normal level.
    The people who die from Corona are essentially those who would statistically die this year, because they have reached the end of their lives and their weakened bodies can no longer cope with any random everyday stress (including the approximately 150 viruses currently in circulation).
    Worldwide, within a quarter of a year, there has been no more than 250,000 deaths from Covid-19, compared to 1.5 million deaths [25,100 in Germany] during the influenza wave 2017/18.
    The danger is obviously no greater than that of many other viruses. There is no evidence that this was more than a false alarm.
    A reproach could go along these lines: During the Corona crisis the State has proved itself as one of the biggest producers of Fake News.

    So far, so bad. But it gets worse.

    The report focuses on the “manifold and heavy consequences of the Corona measures” and warns that these are “grave”.

    More people are dying because of state-imposed Corona-measures than they are being killed by the virus.

    The reason is a scandal in the making:

    A Corona-focused German healthcare system is postponing life-saving surgery and delaying or reducing treatment for non-Corona patients.

    Berlin in Denial Mode. The scientists fight back.

    Initially, the government tried to dismiss the report as “the work of one employee”, and its contents as “his own opinion” – while the journalists closed ranks, no questions asked, with the politicians.

    But the 93-pages report titled “Analysis of the Crisis Management” has been drafted by a scientific panel appointed by the interior ministry and composed by external medical experts from several German universities.

    The report was the initiative of a department of the interior ministry called Unit KM4 and in charge with the “Protection of critical infrastructures”.

    This is also where the German official turned whistleblower, Stephen Kohn, work(ed), and from where he leaked it to the media.

    The authors of the report issued a joint press release already on Mai 11th, berating the government for ignoring expert advise, and asking for the interior minister to officially comment upon the experts joint statement:

    “Therapeutic and preventive measures should never bring more harm than the illness itself. Their aim should be to protect the risk groups, without endegearing the availibilty of medical care and the health of the whole population, as it is unfortunately occurring”

    “We in the scientific and medical praxis are experiencing the secondary damages of the Corona-measures on our patients on a dialy basis.”

    “We therefore ask the Federal Ministry of the Interior, to comment upon our press release, and we hope for a pertinent discussion regarding the [Corona] measures, one that leads to the best possible solution for the whole population”

    At the time of writing, the German government had yet to react.

    But the facts are – sadly – vindicating the medical experts’ worries.

    On Mai 23 the German newspaper Das Bild titled: “Dramatic consequences of the Corona-Measures: 52,000 Cancer Ops delayed.”

    Inside, a aeading medical doctor warns that “we will feel the side-effects of the Corona crisis for years”.

    Shooting the Whistleblower. Ignoring the Message.

    As Der Spiegel reported on Mai 15th: “Stephen Kohn [the whistleblower] has since been suspended from duty. He was advised to obtain a lawyer and his work laptop was confiscated.”

    Kohn had originally leaked the report on May 9th to the liberal-conservative magazine Tichys Einblick one of Germany’s most popular alternative media outlets.

    News of the report went mainstream in Germany during the second week of Mai – but already in the third week media and politicians alike stopped discussing the issue by refusing to comment upon it.

    Emblematic was the approach taken by Günter Krings, the representative for Interior Minister Horst Seehofer – the whistleblower’s boss:

    Asked it he would treat the document seriously, Krings replied:

    “If you start analyzing papers like that, then pretty soon you’ll be inviting the guys with the tin foil hats to parliamentary hearings.”

    Men in tin foil hats – Aluhut in German – is a term used to describe people who believe in conspiracy theories.

    Indeed one article by Der Spiegel adressing the Corona protest movement and the consequences of the leaked report contained the word “conspiracy” no fewer than 17 times!

    And no discussions of the issues raised by the report itself.

    Outside Germany the news has virtually gone unreported.

    The Protest Movement – or “Corona-Rebellen”.

    Germans begun demonstrating against Lockdowns as early as April.

    And thousands of citizens keep showing up at demos every week-end, even as the government is easing the restrictions.

    The demos are not merely against restrictions, which have actually been comparatively mild compared to many other Western countries.

    The demos question the entire Corona Narrative, and even more its principals, especially the role Bill Gates is playing, as the WHO second biggest donor (the first one since Trump suspended U.S. contribution).

    Indeed the biggest such demos took place in Stuttgart on May 9th, where tens of thousands people assempled to say no – to the NWO.

    Germans are saying no to any orwellian solution the government might one day impose out of a questionable “emergency status”, from mass surveillance Apps to mandatory vaccinations.

    The leaked report has proved their fears to be well founded.

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