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I still don’t believe it – Hillary Clinton is not POTUS. A ghost somewhat resembling Ronald Reagan is back in the saddle, the Clintons are relegated to history’s dustbin (and perhaps the penal system) and the Left, as usual, is both wrong and furious. I did not mention Ronald Reagan by mistake – the parallels are plentiful, especially in the vilification department.
There are more than enough post-mortems of the miraculously, marvelously upsetting and unexpected outcome of these elections, all featuring the allegedly wise heads who said a Trump triumph was impossible but who now, once again and undaunted, dispense their oracular wisdom about what the future will hold. In case you can’t guess, by their accounting it will be mostly terrible. I will not tell you why did Donald Trump won, except to note that, judging by the impotent fury of progressives and aggressives, various minorities and terminal idiots, the right person won the prize. The high-decibel rabble now protesting democracy and its result in America are livid that their countrymen — their lesser countrymen, as they would have it — dared to think for themselves, refused to do as they were told. How typical of the Left, which professes to love democracy but only until such time when the elections don’t go their way.
There is yet more comic relief from the ranks of the Republican elite, where we can observe an indecent haste to eat their words, uttered so recently with indignation and righteous fury when disowning their own candidate. Now the same scolds and naysayers are, pardon the pun, trumpling each other in a race to gather the crumbs of power from the table of the man they urged their fellow Americans to scorn in the voting booth. This is the same guy they maligned, undermined and betrayed at every turn. It is better to watch than a five-ring circus, albeit with more than the usual quota of clowns. To the extent that our political stage here in Australia is a sideshow beside the big top of US politics, the critics-turned-supplicants bring to mind our very own Malcolm Turnbull, PM, who bucketed Pauline Hanson in the run-up to the election and must now work with the very same woman he denigrated and reviled. You would have to be Niki Savva (or have a hubby working in the PM’s office) to see anything but an egomaniacal blowhard’s folly in that little prime ministerial outburst.
But I was talking about a US election, so let me observe that, as a long-term student of the American system, I can’t remember such fury after any other election which did not go the left’s way. Why such a strong feeling this time? I am mildly concerned that the combination of the left’s frustration and presumed moral superiority might prompt episodes of armed violence, as idiots consider it their right and obligation to resist “tyranny”. It is an impression enhanced by an internet meme doing the rounds as I type — a Facebook post allegedly authored by Hollywood scriptwriter Paul Schrader. It may be a hoax — I hope it is — but the currency of its instantly widespread circulation and endorsements is deeply unsettling. Here is the post that thousands of disgruntled leftists are “liking” (emphasis added):
I have spent the last five days meditating on Trump’s election. Upon consideration, I believe this is a call to violence. I felt the call to violence in the 60’s and I feel it now again. This attack on liberty and tolerance will not be solved by appeasement. Obama tried that for eight years. We should finance those who support violence resistance. We should be willing to take arms. Like Old John Brown, I am willing to battle with my children. Alt-right nut jobs swagger violence. It’s time to actualize that violence, Like by Civil War Michigan predecessors I choose to stand with the black, the brown and the oppressed.
Schrader, who wrote the script for Raging Bull and several other modern classics, lives near the bucolic town of Lake Carmel in upstate New York. How would he fancy a bit of “swagger violence”, whatever that means, being visited upon his front door and the man who opens it? Probably wouldn’t fancy it at all, but that’s the Left all over — prescribe for others what you won’t countenance for yourself. So far no shots have been fired and the only “violence” is of the fanciful hoax variety, as mad anti-Trumpers fabricate incidents of alleged redneck intolerance. Online magazine Reason examines some of the bogus incidents here.
Nevertheless, what we have seen — the street protests, window-smashing, foul chants and open contempt for those who voted Trump into office — remains unprecedented, like almost everything else in this mercifully concluded election. Gradually it dawned on me that this fury was actually the protesters’ farewell to their power of making all of us think and act the way they wanted us to. So long have they occupied the pulpits of public opinion, preaching their ever-expanding PC rectitude, they actually believed the rest of the population was listening, heeding and living in fear of their warnings. But the greater populace wasn’t listening, as they now know, merely enduring their endless sermons and proscriptions. The greater populace didn’t like the idea of grown men in dresses using women’s toilets, to cite but one example. The greater populace was gritting its teeth, biting its tongue and biding its time until someone came along who was gloriously, unashamedly politically incorrect. That man was Donald J. Trump, and when the opportunity arose they voted for him.
Meanwhile, what of Barack Obama’s legacy? He was the man who was going to end America’s racial enmities, yet eight years on they are worse than ever, with white cops being gunned down by Black Lives Matter zealots. He did get one thing right, however: his promise to stop global warming and the allegedly rising seas. That one was easy. The seas still aren’t rising to any significantly measurable extent, while global warming had stalled at least nine years before he came to office. He has a Nobel Peace Prize and that will have to be his consolation — a prize also awarded to the likes of Ho Chi Min and Yasser Arafat, which tells you what it is worth. He can fondle that Nobel trophy as Trump attempts to address some of the damage his predecessor wrought by his abrogation of global leadership, a retreat that has seen the advance of the tyranny and massive nuclear proliferation. Obama’s name will be associated with the Middle Eastern upheaval and turmoil, the flow of the refugees into Europe, un-resisted Russian aggression, the ignominy of the Iranian nuclear deal and betrayal of US allies.
Most of all, Obama’s presidency will be remembered as the leading cause and trigger of the American people wishing to distance themselves from other people’s troubles, since the isolationist undercurrent, alive and well through most of US history, seems to have been given voice to an as-yet-unknown extent. Obama’s legacy will not be celebrated for its greatness, except by his barrackers. Rather, it will be remembered as an illustration of the immortal saying about good intentions and their consequences.
Yet Trump will, in his own words, strengthen America’s military machine and make sure it remains the best fighting force on the planet. That will take money. A lot of money. It means that the Democrats’ priorities will be superseded and budgetary restraints imposed on welfare and entitlements (including Obamacare). It will also mean demands on American allies for a larger contribution to their own defense. There’s nothing more annoying than a bludging friend. Behind Trump’s rhetoric is a very simple instruction: “Guys, start paying for your own security!” It is not beyond the realm of the possible that Australia will be asked to pay more as well. We’ve been riding on the American coattails for long enough.
The brightest flash in the Trump ascendancy is that the next president, judging by his words, will neither suffer nor be cowed by the PC police. The ripple effect from this simple defiance should be immense. Trump’s tendency to call a spade a spade may well be replicated all over the world. Will its influence help to see the end of Section 18C law in Australia? Who knows, but it will affect the atmosphere in which these kinds of legal follies are conceived, sustained and implemented.
The main lesson of an American election for the world, including Australia, is this: the silent majority can still find its voice. This majority has been gagged by PC culture and the Left’s creeping, ever-expanding crimps on freedom of speech, plus the elites’ preoccupation with irrelevancies and useless niceties. I dare to hope there is an antipodean Trump waiting to reflect Australian voters’ concerns. When he or she takes the microphone and is heard, our local left will have something to fret about.
Dr Michael Galak and his family came to Australia as refugees from the Soviet Union in 1978
‘…un-resisted Russian aggression…?’ Please elaborate Michael.
Perhaps Michael is referring to the recent Russian invasion of Crimea … which seems to remain under Russian domination without resistance.
Ukraine, middle east
The Left media will hound him like they did here with Tony Abbott, once they have come out of their safe spaces and playing with teddy bears after their traumatic experience. There is already talk of “impeachment” in the Left media even before he is in the White House. In the litigious society that is America the losers are already preparing for “lawfare”. Strap yourself in for a bumpy ride over the next 4 years.
I suspect Trump will honour few, if any, of his electoral promises. Though Niall Ferguson seemed to think “populists always do what they say they’ll do”, I suspect Trump will do in office what is good for Trump. Still, right at this time, I’m enjoying the schadenfreude of his success and what it’s done to the entitlement-centred, morally vain, authoritarian Left.
No, it doesn’t look as though Michael is going to respond, Bushranger. Perhaps both Patrick and pgang are both right (of course Crimea and the Ukraine are related, as far as the Ukrainians and the West is concerned, but not for Putin and the Russians, where Crimea is seen as a bit of a USSR era blunder, in aligning a once entirely Russian seaport with the Ukraine, which was part of the USSR when the blunder was made. Crimea was Russian at the time of Tsar Nicholas II and is again now). The history of the Ukraine is a lot more complex, hence different and I won’t elaborate as it was brilliantly discussed in the Quadrant a few months ago.
pgang, may or may not being ironic when he mentions the Middle East, as an example of ‘Russian aggression’. I must assume he is indeed being ironic, as he would well know that Russia merely stepped in to clean up the appalling mess Obama created in the first place, encouraging the Arab Spring, hoping to manufacture American style democracy in regimes that are far better suited to dictatorships (as was Iraq, perhaps, though we did like to hate Saddam, as I did too, just a little). Obama, and his henchman, David Cameron, were out to get Gaddafi, and equally determined to oust Bashar al-Assad. In doing so they armed guys who were indeed deplorables, people not in the slightest bit like Trump supporters, but Islamists little different to the Nusra Front sweety pies with whom they freely exchange top of the line US armaments. Indeed Free Syrian Army has almost a western ring to it. Any of them would behead the likes of you and me at the drop of a hat.
Now, Saint Putin, who appears to know a lot more about Middle Eastern politics than Obama and that damp squid Kerry, has decided a bit of stability is needed at least somewhere in the Middle East, and could see one of the last ‘decent’ dictators about to be deposed, courtesy of Obama knucklehead, so he decided to lend a bit of help. No aggression, mind you, just a bit of biceps flexing, with the odd Sukhoi Su-24 and Ka-52 attack helicopter, nothing lethal mind you, and boy, has it scared the bejeebers out the wets.
Somehow I don’t think that is what Michael was thinking.
Sorry Michael, but at the risk of boring my fellow readers here, I cannot let such a combination chow-mien of climatological error and historiographical distortion pass without comment.
According to the custodians of thermometer readings, 2016 is set to be the hottest year on record.
(See http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2016/11/14/2016-track-hottest-year-record/93788074/ )
And the world’s ocean has been rising quite fast over the last couple of hundred years.
Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) Rates
CU: 3.3 ± 0.4 mm/yr
AVISO: 3.3 ± 0.6 mm/yr
CSIRO: 3.3 ± 0.4 mm/yr
NASA GSFC: 3.2 ± 0.4 mm/yr
NOAA: 3.2 ± 0.4 mm/yr (w/ GIA)
Do the arithmetic. 3.3 ± 0.4 mm/yr (CSIRO) ~ 33mm/decade (= 3.3 cm/decade ~ 33 ± 4 cm/century ~ 330 cm/1,000 yrs: ie 3.3 metres/1,000 yrs
~ 33 metres/10,000 yrs.
10,000 years takes us back to about the start of the Agricultural Revolution which led onto the birth of civilisation. If the ocean had been rising at that rate for the last 10,000 years, we would have to don scuba gear to see any classical buildings set close to a shore line. But we don’t.
Ergo, this rate of rise is a comparatively recent phenomenon.
And as you might just possibly be aware, the French were fighting their way into Vietnam in the 18th C. (The Japanese, inspired by their example, tried to follow it in a somewhat larger way in the 1930s and 1940s.) Ho Chi Minh made it his life’s work to rid his country of the French colonialists. In a similar way, we Australians fought the Japanese attempt to colonise Australia. If we were in the right, Ho was also. (And the Vietnam Wars fought by the French colonialists and their American successors were never for democracy.)
I suggest you have a look at The Fog of War, a documentary made about Robert McNamara, or just read the TIME article about his post-Vietnam mea culpa.
http://sealevel.colorado.edu/
http://content.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1913028_1913030_1913022,00.html?xid=rss-specials-mobile
Ian,
Are you seriously worried that the seas might rise 3.3m in 1,000 years – given 5 -6 provisos? Apparently unlike you, I have always considered immortality more of a curse than a benefit. I also cannot bring myself to be concerned about my descendants 40 generations hence, but I love to worry about my ancestors 40+ generations ago. Yeah, right …
You have no credibility until you tell us all the destination of your Hogwarts Express.
Please enlighten us all and answer two simple questions (the fourth time I have Omm, Omm, Omm asked you:
“Well, the evidence is that [this sea-level rise] it is nothing to worry about, so I have put my money where the facts and my empirical knowledge are and bought a block of land in Ho Tram in Vietnam (look it up) 1.5m above the king tide high water mark. We begin building next February 2017.
We have had this debate many times, but as you stated when asked to answer some plain questions, such as
“What is the ideal average temperature for the world if 288K is considered too warm and an increase of 2K is thought to be a tipping point that will lead to catastrophic (if unspecifiable) results?” You replied that would also not play the game by letting us all know what you consider the ideal concentration of CO2? If 400ppm (let me make that clearer for this magic gas that you BELIEVE 400 parts per 1,000,000) is too high. At 250ppm it can be demonstrated that plant life struggles, but as more CO2 enters the atmosphere satellites show that plants are thriving and there is empirical evidence of the ‘Greening of the Earth’, the receding deserts and food crops are doing better. So, time for you to play the game and answer these two simple questions.
I gained a great deal of respect for Jody for admitting she was wrong and wrong again over the US elections [though I note she has begun some backsliding comments]. So all you have to do is tell us your answers to the two key questions, admit you fell for the CAGW con and repent and you can rejoin humanity and the scientific approach. Sorry, I forgot, a cringing abject apology to the Honourable Senator Malcolm Roberts, MP is also required.
As the Carboniferous Age was the most prolific period of life and speciation my personal view of that evidence is that 293K – 300K would be beneficial along with 2,000ppm – 4,000ppm of CO2.
Given that you have so much time on your hands, why not spend some of it in personal improvement by listing for us ten benefits of a 5-7K increase in average global temperature and the beneficial effects of 4,000ppm on the environment. Now that would be a wonderful world.”
Every time you post your repeated ‘evidence’ I will post this right under it so the people can judge.
.
“Every time you post your repeated ‘evidence’ I will post this right under it so the people can judge.”
Keep posting away. You and your pathetic talk of ‘CAGW con.”!!!
That ‘CAGW con’ is a conspiracy theory fit to put any 9-11 wacko in the shade. There is an alleged ‘con’- confidence trick or conspiracy – take your pick – that involves every climatologist in the world, plus the IPCC, plus the CSIRO and all other major scientific organisations, with not one of the conspirators realising that he/she could dine out forever and a day by just blowing the whistle on it. Probably pick up a Nobel and a few other gongs as well. And you talk of “rejoin humanity and the scientific approach.”[!!!!!] You would not know what a ‘scientific approach’ was if it approached you from the rear and bit you on the gluteus maximus.
I happen to think that sea-level rise is the only reliable indicator of the thermal state of the planet. I do not, repeat not, think that anyone necessarily is in any immediate danger of being flooded out, or that any presently low-lying land must necessarily go under. Isostatic upward crustal movements can follow relief from the weight of a glacial mass. But sea level can only rise world-wide because of 1. thermal expansion of sea water and/or 2. glacial and icecap melt.
So denialostriches who point to thermometer records as proof that there is no global warming are completely wide of the mark. Probably have to check now and again to make sure their boots are on the correct feet.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2016/11/14/2016-track-hottest-year-record/93788074/
Or it could rise for lots of other reasons. Tectonics for example. Perhaps the crust is shedding water into the oceans, whi knows. Perhaps its part of a normal cycle. To relate it to agw is drawing the longest buw imaginable
Noted.
Ian, you might have to look a bit closer at the shoreline 10000 years ago. You could still walk from Britain to Continental Europe, from Victoria to Tasmania. Even 6000 years ago you could walk to Barrow Island. BTW there are plenty of classical buildings that are submerged, one reason why there is marine archaeology.
As for Ho, when he decided to attack the Saigon government, he wasn’t attacking “the French” but a rival Vietnamese regime.
PT:
I do not have time to respond to that tonight, but it is one of those issues I consider important. So please watch this space.
If all this global warming is about to kill us due to sea levels rising to enormous extremes why did Ms Gillard buy her multi-million dollar hovel at South Brighton, where she can take in the ocean views from a 12-person spa, on the beach front? Doesn’t she know, after giving away billions of Australian taxpayer dollars, she and “we’ll all be rooned”? You must tell her before it’s too late.
And why did James Packer put his new casino at Barrangaroo bang slap on the edge of Sydney Harbour?
Jody, that is the real clincher. I have no answer, nor possibility of one either. Nor, I suspect, do any of your climatological shysters.
I see on the TV news that there is a meeting of climatologists from all over the world taking place right now at the Cape Grim Baseline Air Pollution Station, Tasmania. I am sure that when they learn that “James Packer put his new casino at Barrangaroo bang slap on the edge of Sydney Harbour [?]” they will all just lose heart, declare game over; the whole AGW scam exposed for the fraud that it is, console themselves on the research grants they managed to con out of the innocent and unsuspecting taxpayers while it was running, agree that it was good while it lasted, and all start looking for an alternative lurk. And if there is a bar at the airport on their way out, they will probably drink that dry as well.
And a few of them will possibly console themselves with the last words of Ned Kelly, said when about to be hung: “such is life.”
😉
I am afraid that political chook Gillard would take no more notice of me than she did of Professor Penny Sackville, Australian Chief Scientist during her tenure of office. So I’m afraid now she will have to look out for herself, on AGW and everything else.
Good to see that you are still around and kicking, Ian. When you failed to respond to a recent article condemning all aspects of ACGW, I was concerned about your well-being. I continue to hope that sooner or later you will realise that you are flogging a long-dead horse and join the rest of us who have long been aware of the folly of the issue. A gentleman, like yourself Ian, will alway be welcome among us.
Thank you, Bill.
For the benefit of the company of variously salvationable (;-) souls at this site, here is a list of the 167 scientific organisations of the world which endorse the ‘dead horse’ of the AGW hypothesis. (https://www.opr.ca.gov/s_listoforganizations.php )
No doubt that ‘en passant’ and certain others will decide they are all wrong. But note that the list includes The Royal Society (UK), the American Association for the Advancement of Science, and our own native Australian CSIRO.
Academia Chilena de Ciencias, Chile
Academia das Ciencias de Lisboa, Portugal
Academia de Ciencias de la República Dominicana
Academia de Ciencias Físicas, Matemáticas y Naturales de Venezuela
Academia de Ciencias Medicas, Fisicas y Naturales de Guatemala
Academia Mexicana de Ciencias,Mexico
Academia Nacional de Ciencias de Bolivia
Academia Nacional de Ciencias del Peru
Académie des Sciences et Techniques du Sénégal
Académie des Sciences, France
Academies of Arts, Humanities and Sciences of Canada
Academy of Athens
Academy of Science of Mozambique
Academy of Science of South Africa
Academy of Sciences for the Developing World (TWAS)
Academy of Sciences Malaysia
Academy of Sciences of Moldova
Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic
Academy of Sciences of the Islamic Republic of Iran
Academy of Scientific Research and Technology, Egypt
Academy of the Royal Society of New Zealand
Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei, Italy
Africa Centre for Climate and Earth Systems Science
African Academy of Sciences
Albanian Academy of Sciences
Amazon Environmental Research Institute
American Academy of Pediatrics
American Anthropological Association
American Association for the Advancement of Science
American Association of State Climatologists (AASC)
American Association of Wildlife Veterinarians
American Astronomical Society
American Chemical Society
American College of Preventive Medicine
American Fisheries Society
American Geophysical Union
American Institute of Biological Sciences
American Institute of Physics
American Meteorological Society
American Physical Society
American Public Health Association
American Quaternary Association
American Society for Microbiology
American Society of Agronomy
American Society of Civil Engineers
American Society of Plant Biologists
American Statistical Association
Association of Ecosystem Research Centers
Australian Academy of Science
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Australian Coral Reef Society
Australian Institute of Marine Science
Australian Institute of Physics
Australian Marine Sciences Association
Australian Medical Association
Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society
Bangladesh Academy of Sciences
Botanical Society of America
Brazilian Academy of Sciences
British Antarctic Survey
Bulgarian Academy of Sciences
California Academy of Sciences
Cameroon Academy of Sciences
Canadian Association of Physicists
Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences
Canadian Geophysical Union
Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society
Canadian Society of Soil Science
Canadian Society of Zoologists
Caribbean Academy of Sciences views
Center for International Forestry Research
Chinese Academy of Sciences
Colombian Academy of Exact, Physical and Natural Sciences
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) (Australia)
Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research
Croatian Academy of Arts and Sciences
Crop Science Society of America
Cuban Academy of Sciences
Delegation of the Finnish Academies of Science and Letters
Ecological Society of America
Ecological Society of Australia
Environmental Protection Agency
European Academy of Sciences and Arts
European Federation of Geologists
European Geosciences Union
European Physical Society
European Science Foundation
Federation of American Scientists
French Academy of Sciences
Geological Society of America
Geological Society of Australia
Geological Society of London
Georgian Academy of Sciences
German Academy of Natural Scientists Leopoldina
Ghana Academy of Arts and Sciences
Indian National Science Academy
Indonesian Academy of Sciences
Institute of Ecology and Environmental Management
Institute of Marine Engineering, Science and Technology
Institute of Professional Engineers New Zealand
Institution of Mechanical Engineers, UK
InterAcademy Council
International Alliance of Research Universities
International Arctic Science Committee
International Association for Great Lakes Research
International Council for Science
International Council of Academies of Engineering and Technological Sciences
International Research Institute for Climate and Society
International Union for Quaternary Research
International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics
International Union of Pure and Applied Physics
Islamic World Academy of Sciences
Israel Academy of Sciences and Humanities
Kenya National Academy of Sciences
Korean Academy of Science and Technology
Kosovo Academy of Sciences and Arts
l’Académie des Sciences et Techniques du Sénégal
Latin American Academy of Sciences
Latvian Academy of Sciences
Lithuanian Academy of Sciences
Madagascar National Academy of Arts, Letters, and Sciences
Mauritius Academy of Science and Technology
Montenegrin Academy of Sciences and Arts
National Academy of Exact, Physical and Natural Sciences, Argentina
National Academy of Sciences of Armenia
National Academy of Sciences of the Kyrgyz Republic
National Academy of Sciences, Sri Lanka
National Academy of Sciences, United States of America
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
National Association of Geoscience Teachers
National Association of State Foresters
National Center for Atmospheric Research
National Council of Engineers Australia
National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research, New Zealand
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Research Council
National Science Foundation
Natural England
Natural Environment Research Council, UK
Natural Science Collections Alliance
Network of African Science Academies
New York Academy of Sciences
Nicaraguan Academy of Sciences
Nigerian Academy of Sciences
Norwegian Academy of Sciences and Letters
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
Organization of Biological Field Stations
Pakistan Academy of Sciences
Palestine Academy for Science and Technology
Pew Center on Global Climate Change
Polish Academy of Sciences
Romanian Academy
Royal Academies for Science and the Arts of Belgium
Royal Academy of Exact, Physical and Natural Sciences of Spain
Royal Astronomical Society, UK
Royal Danish Academy of Sciences and Letters
Royal Irish Academy
Royal Meteorological Society (UK)
Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences
Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research
Royal Scientific Society of Jordan
Royal Society of Canada
Royal Society of Chemistry, UK
Royal Society of the United Kingdom
Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences
Russian Academy of Sciences
Science and Technology, Australia
Science Council of Japan
Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research
Scientific Committee on Solar-Terrestrial Physics
Scripps Institution of Oceanography
Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts
Slovak Academy of Sciences
Slovenian Academy of Sciences and Arts
Society for Ecological Restoration International
Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
Society of American Foresters
Society of Biology (UK)
Society of Systematic Biologists
Soil Science Society of America
Sudan Academy of Sciences
Sudanese National Academy of Science
Tanzania Academy of Sciences
The Wildlife Society (international)
Turkish Academy of Sciences
Uganda National Academy of Sciences
Union of German Academies of Sciences and Humanities
United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
World Association of Zoos and Aquariums
World Federation of Public Health Associations
World Forestry Congress
World Health Organization
World Meteorological Organization
Zambia Academy of Sciences
Zimbabwe Academy of Sciences
Consensus, regardless of its breadth, does not constitute proof of the slightest value, Ian.
Bill:
There used to be a scientific consensus around the phlogiston theory of combustion. Then along came Lavoisier, and a new consensus rapidly formed. In that respect, science can be described as ‘the Great Consensus’. It is there in every textbook.
Appeals to authority in the face of the facts of nature are what are worthless: which is why those clerical ‘sceptics’ of the day REFUSED Galileo’s invitation to take a look through his new-fangled telescope. The facts were at variance with the authorities’ version of nature’s workings.
Appealing to authority, Ian. How is that working for you? Facts based on long records of unaltered, “unhomogenised”, temperature data would help your cause immensely, but sadly for you, there is none.
.
“… but sadly for you, there is none.”
That is why I concentrate on sea-level data, as established by satellite altimetry and endorsed in his own inimitable way, by none other than that leading denialostrich, (sorry ‘sceptic’) Professor Ian Plimer.
For the denialostriches (sorry ‘sceptics’)to be right, all those other authorities I CITED AS SUPPORTING AGW have to be wrong: in a vanishingly improbable way.
Isn’t that a splendid demonstration of “Group think”?
Just yesterday morning on the FM car radio about 8am, I had ABC FM music playing and was momentarily distracted by a knot of traffic from changing the station before the ABC trumpeted its’ on-the-hour “news”. And there was Waffle belligerently telling us that Obama was still US President.
Ho ho ho …
I hope the Don prevails but the lefty exploding heads over the last week, including the Waffle anecdote above, have been wunderbar. And maybe, just maybe, the Green Blob will have its’ stride broken into a circular stumble, like something from the cult TV show “The Walking Dead”.
Or “The Twilight Zone”.
It’s ITS! The third person singular possessive neutral case is ITS! You don’t write HIS’ or HER’S or HERS’. One despairs.
As a friend of mine once said, “every dog has his day, but a bitch has a week”!! HRC.
The right economics is the answer, NOT the hero on horse-back, the Messiah, etc, etc.
If Trump starts to tackle the real, known PHYSICAL economy problems of the USA, everyone will soon cheer him, hence his ego will be happy, and we can breathe easily.
In descending order of Trump’s winning hand:
1. Trump is a soul brother to Putin. If they work out a global condominium for economic development, then we will not have to rush off and learn Chinese!
2. An immediate 15% + revenue/protective tariff (as the Trump promised) to ‘bring the jobs back’;
3. A 1% turnover/sales tax (Tobin tax) on Wall Street’s junk activities. Bingo, no more budget deficit;
4. Build infrastructure (including nuclear energy) through the provision of national credit/megabyte low interest credit provided by the Federal Reserve to the states. Lend don’t borrow!
Trump has to beat the billionaire owners of His Party (the Koch Brothers/ Mercers etc). Then he has to tame Wall Street, as did FDR, – but that might all prove beyond the powers of this single mortal man. Trump is good fun but no hero on horseback.
Ashley Feinberg I think makes a pretty good case that Trump has had a Road-to-Damascus-like realisation that he is in over his head and not set up to be a happy man as President. And Feinberg supplies a superb collection of photos to bolster his case.
http://theconcourse.deadspin.com/donald-trump-doesnt-like-this-any-more-than-you-do-1788862854
Could be that he thought it was gonna be just another “pussy grab” – to use one of his own favourite expressions and routines? Trumpenstein’s will be a landmark Presidency: of that I am sure. Could even outdo Richard Nixon’s.
Ian, what is this “case”? Oh, a set of selected photographs. BTW, did you see her rather nasty comment about Ted Cruze? Clearly she’s very politically biased – for one she said Trump has “no business running anything” – how about his own company??? We’ll see how he handles things soon enough.
Ian,
Well done!
You are already quoting the same talking head pundits who got the election all wrong. Why are they right just this once? I was not taken in by Global Cooling (1970), Global Warming (1990), Climate Change (2010) or the Climate Con (Green Time), so why would I fall for the Great Flood in 1,000 years from now? I took your advice and did the sums and you are right, so I am building 1.5m above king tide 1km up the coast from Ho Tram. Check the sea level at Ho Tram at:
https://www.tripadvisor.com.au/LocationPhotos-g2549585-w35-Ho_Tram_Ba_Ria_Vung_Tau_Province.html
Should we worry that Trump might do all that he promised, or should we be putting $Bn’s into building an Ark to save the world from the real problem: the “3.3 cm/decade ~ 33 ± 4 cm/century rise (or fall?) in sea levels”.
You know, if you did not exist we would have to invent you as to feel good some people just need a doomsday scenario to hang on to. Any catastrophe will do, so unfortunately, you must be real as you are beyond my imagination …
Next time you quote the same ‘threat’ of CSLR could you save me some effort and just post my two unanswered questions with your comment. Thanks in advance as that will save me time and wasted effort.
Don’t forget “The Greenhouse Effect”
See my reply to Bill Martin above. And as for “Should we worry that Trump might do all that he promised, or should we be putting $Bn’s into building an Ark to save the world from the real problem: the ‘3.3 cm/decade ~ 33 ± 4 cm/century rise (or fall?) in sea levels’.”
It is not in my brief to enlighten your ignorance of maths and/or physics. So you will have to work out for yourself what “3.3 cm/decade ~ 33 ± 4 cm/century” means.
I do not think you are likely to be in any danger of rising seas in the foreseeable future. BUT with the reality of AGW, who knows what else is around the corner?
Ian,
1. Your appeal to authority in a commentary about a scientific (or at least a pseudo-scientific) subject is pathetic. Scepticism is the basis if science, not cheer-leading the status quo. FAIL.
2.Not quite sure what part of arithmetic (not science or physics) got wrong. Maybe my grammar was not clear that we are talking about a variation of 8cm/100 years (beginning from what date might I ask?) as I have a photo of Ho Tram taken 46 years ago and nothing has changed from the photo I took from the same spot this year, though it should be about 15cm higher. If it has happened, it is not noticeable. After due consideration I consider your comment an attempted insulting ad hominen FAIL.
3. As the brainless Tin Man in Wizard of Oz asked of Dorothy:
“Where do you want to go?”
“I don’t know.
“Then any road will take you there.”
Once more you have FAILED to answer the two simple question I posed to you about your destination: 1. what is the ideal temperature you seek? and 2. what is the ideal concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere.
So, are you Dorothy or the Tin Man?
I look at Ian’s figures and I”m left scratching my head. I read counter arguments and I am none the wiser. I am unable to do the maths, I was never able to do the maths, as I would much rather have been reading Walter Scott, or Children of the New Forest, by Federick Marryat, when I ought to have been doing my arithmetic homework. But the photograph bit would convince me any day of the week.
.
“Scepticism is the basis if science, not cheer-leading the status quo. FAIL.”
Brilliant!
Pure, unadulterated brilliance!!!!
For ‘status quo’ we could substitute anything generally agreed. Like:
Scepticism is the basis if science, not cheer-leading the Law of Universal Gravitation. FAIL.
Scepticism is the basis if science, not cheer-leading Quantum Theory. FAIL.
Scepticism is the basis if science, not cheer-leading the Second Law of Thermodynamics. FAIL.
Scepticism is the basis if science, not cheer-leading Ohm’s Law. FAIL.
Scepticism is the basis if science, not cheer-leading the Periodic Table. FAIL.
But this is just the start. “Scepticism is the basis if science, not cheer-leading the Law of Universal Gravitation….” could really take you places in the aviation business. Gravity is known to have caused a lot of problems there. Donald Trump might even make you Commander in Chief of the US Air Force!
And I hereby nominate you ‘en passant’ or whatever your real name is, for investment into the Contrarian Order of the Skeptical Dunny Can.
Arise, Sir ‘en passant’, or Sir ….whatever your real name is.
What was Bill Clinton’s favourite expression when dealing with women who didn’t want to deal with him?
Have a cigar
“…bolster his case?”
Oops. Should be bolster her case.
I bow to someone of Russian heritage re their history; but I believe the Crimean matter is widely misunderstood and some may find this background illuminating.
Firstly; some early history relating to Crimea, from a translation.
‘…The Russian presence in Crimea has been recorded since ancient chronicled times…In the tenth century, Tmutarakan principality – part of the Ancient (Kievan) Rus – takes root on the Crimean and the Caucasian coasts of the Kerch Strait… the Eastern geographers of that time called the Kerch Strait for the Russian River. And so it was in Kerch that, after a long period of Ottoman history in Crimea, Russia once again establishes on the peninsula, several years before its full incorporation into the Russian Empire.
In 1771 Russian troops took Kerch and neighbouring fortress Yeni-Kale. By the Kuchuk-Karnadzhiyskomu peace treaty between the Russian and Ottoman empires, which ended Russian-Turkish war of 1768-1774, this city with its fortress was the first of all the Crimea to become part of the Russian Empire, while, in accordance with that agreement, the Crimean Khanate as a whole then became independence from the Ottoman Empire, with the exception of the influence in the questions of religion. The manifesto of Catherine II was issued on the 8th of April 1783 and decreed the accession of Crimea, Taman and Kuban into the Russian Empire. By the decree of the 2nd of February 1784 Tauridian region (oblast) was established, covering some of the continental land. Later it was transformed into a province (county)…’
And a bit more historical background.
‘…During WW2, there was massive German occupation of Crimea…The Crimean Autonomous Republic was liquidated on February 23, 1944 (the decree, incidentally, was not actually promulgated until June 26, 1946), and its native population, the Tatars, deported from the Crimea to Central Asia and the northern districts of the USSR… A great many Russians and Ukrainians were deported along with the Tatars… In general, they deported everyone who had shown the slightest trace, not just of collaboration, but even of tolerance toward the German occupation. The process of deportation embraced a huge proportion of the entire Crimean population…
The Soviet government sent streams of new settlers into the “liberated” Crimean lands. It transported whole villages from the central provinces of the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic (RSFSR). Likewise, thousands of persons evacuated during the war, but now homeless, received a new area in which to settle—the Crimea. As a result, the Crimea was re- populated, but since it had lost its native Tatar population, it no longer had a lawful basis for being a republic. In this manner the RSFSR lost the Crimean Autonomous Republic, but acquired the Crimean Province…’
The move in 1954 by President Khruschev to assign Crimea to Ukraine is viewed by many to have been an autocratic erroneous decision, considering the longstanding Russian control of the region.
I just happened to be in Crimea very soon after the Russian Special Forces intervention in 2014, which was aimed at clinical disarming of the Ukrainian military. That was swiftly achieved and they then quickly departed enabling smooth introduction of Russian administrative governance in the region.
Restoration to Russian control was largely welcomed by the regional populace, as the area is Russian speaking and schooling is in the Russian education system.
From a military history perspective, the Crimean Peninsula is an absolute treasure trove where numerous significant military events took place; also, availability for inspection of ‘Cold War’ underground submarine and nuclear facilities and the summer residence of the last Tzar, where the Allied leaders held their second last major conference before the war ended.
Sevastopol harbour is a stunning non-commercial jewel, surrounded by military colleges, museums, hospitals. It has been the home port of the Russian Navy Black Sea Fleet almost continuously since the early 1700s and Russia was paying Ukraine substantial leasing costs following the Khruschev folly. The young staff at a splendid waterfront hotel were very well trained and the elderly and women can safely walk anywhere around the precinct at night.
We spent a following few weeks in Russia and other eastern European States. The major cities of Russia are very westernized with all of the top fashion houses, Irish pubs, McDonalds, and the usual media outlets.
US and British TV is virtually unfettered in Russia and their scorn post-Crimea annexation and the Malaysian Airways MH-17 downing was just vile. The Russians reacted quite modestly and simply temporarily shut down a handful of McDonalds outlets in Moscow (there are apparently 300 plus across the country). But they were generally quite offended by Tony Abbott’s hairy-chested belligerence, interpreted as unqualified support for the US.
The quality of any nation can be judged by their youth, who all speak English well. Young Russian males are generally tidily dressed with neat haircuts and the girls are nicely groomed. Drunken yobbo behaviour is not tolerated in watering holes or public places.
Perhaps worth a final comment re NATO behaviour near the Baltic States, that organization largely being just a proxy for the US. There is still deep resentment in Poland regarding their treatment by the Allies during WW2. Although they are now embraced in NATO, some Poles view that with foreboding.
When in Krakow, I discovered a wonderful aviation museum and in one aircraft hangar, exhibited on a wall was an enlarged NATO Battle Plan for initial actions in the event of WW3 (during the ‘Cold War’), endorsed with multiple security annotations, etcetera. The first action was to be dropping of 10 nukes across Poland by the USAF, to create a nuclear wasteland.
The world might be safer if the US becomes more CONUS focused under President Elect Donald Trump!
Ah the Russian trolls have found quadrant
I must apologise, Bushranger. There I was waffling on about Russia and the Crimea (above) not realising you had written all this here. Your response is particularly informative and interesting.
“swagger violence” might refer to the fictional character Bob Lee Swagger from Polk County, Arkansas.
In the books backstory Swagger joined the Marines, forging a successful career as a Marine Sniper. Bob Lee served three tours in Vietnam, working with Special Operations, and earned the nickname ‘Bob the Nailer’ for his uncanny ability with a rifle (Wikipedia).
Another great, insightful article from Michael Galak.
Alas, the rise of an antipodean Trump is extremely unlikely, desirable as that may be. The package of characteristics that is Donald Trump to be present in one individual is a very rare phenomenon. Besides, the fearless, boundless, egotistic, bombastic self-confidence is more prevalent in America than in Oz. When it does surface here in some milder form it is more likely to be larrikinism, ala Paul hogan, than in politics. The prospects are further narrowed by the fact that the all-conquering character also needs to be backed up by being the head of a successful, multi-billion dollar business enterprise. The more one contemplates the notion, the more hopeless it seems.
Disagree with your last point. The orange by_election has shownn that we can do it. Go Orange!
Can the non PC backbencher Tony Abbott scrape himself off the carpet now that Malcolm Turbull fails the turnback policy to appease the left while lumping stupidity on the USA with more refugees?
Time for him to make a comeback either in or out of the Turnbullite Illiberal Party. Mosquitos have been known to bring down elephants and small beginnings can lead to world changing ends. If you’re reading this Tony, it’s time to get back in the race.