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The bookies said it wouldn’t happen, couldn’t happen, not with the way the polls were pointing. Yet it did happen, that 6-to-1 proposition, and Australia can heave a sigh of absolute relief that the longshot came home.
Scott Morrison called it “a miracle”, which it was in more ways than one. Not only did the Coalition retain the government benches, the spate of resignations that preceded the election saw a cadre of Turnbullians banish themselves. Mr Morrison must feel particularly blessed, even allowing for the bad news out of Warringah.
And the rest of us? As a nation we have been saved from the fate outlined, but never detailed, in the clip below.
It was a very close call.
Quadrant Online will have more on the Miracle Election over the days to come. In the meantime, subscribers should feel to avail themselves of the comment thread below.
I expected the ALP to win by 5-6 seats but I’m pleased to say I was wrong.
The pollsters were very wrong, especially in Q’ld. There is minor interest in watching their rationalising excuses now.
Now we wonder if Jackie Trad will be shut down and let Palaeochook sign off on Adani’s Carmichael mine and it’s enabling rail line.
Shorten channeled Whitlam. Morrison channeled himself. Authenticity and integrity count.
* Biggest losers of the night: Bill Shorten, Abbott, the Turnbulls, China, and the people smugglers.
* Biggest WTF moment: Chris Pyne saying the LIBs could have won with Malcolm.
* Biggest whiplash event: Julie Bishop declaring she’s right behind Morrison’s LIBs.
“The bookies said it wouldn’t happen, couldn’t happen, not with the way the polls were pointing. Yet it did happen, that 6-to-1 proposition”
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Yesterday those bookies bet on 92 thoroughbred races at 12 Australian venues and 31 were won by horses starting at 6-to-1 (7.00) or greater. A 6/1 shot in a “two horse race” has the same chance as a specific 6/1 chance in the Melbourne Cup. To a large extent bookmakers final odds are determined by punters, and in the case of the betting exchange, Betfair, which held $3.5m on the election, and had similar, but slightly longer prices, prices are determined entirely by weight of money from punters with Betfair taking a cut from winners only in return for offering a market place.
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Polls got Cameron, Britex, Trump, Morrison…. badly wrong. Their methodology is sadly wanting, as are punter’s judgements, swayed I guess by the polls.
Just days before the election, both The Australian and Herald Sun had on-line articles on the revisiting of the Shorten/Kathy Sherriff issue, but both were shortly after taken down – “404 Unfortunately the page you’re looking for is not here”.
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Peter Faris, former head of the National Crime Authority is a formidable lawyer to have in your corner – interesting to see what eventuates.
What I really liked last night was that moment when the ABC conceded that Morrison would retain Government and the ABC would be in opposition for the next three years. Particularly nice was the Chairman of the ABC accepting responsibility for the failure and stepping down as CEO.
For the first time in “100 years” I am watching the ABC and Cassidy’s miserable face is a delight to behold, as was Shorten’s when conceding.
“…and Cassidy’s miserable face is a delight to behold.” — It was like Hawkie had died twice.
Remember when the ALP represented the working class. This all changed with Keating and his antique clocks. Since that time the ALP has only represented militant homosexuals and women with really short hair.
The Insiders/Labor line now:
— Cassidy and others: the Liberals ran a really negative campaign.
— Plibersek, Wong: Labor had great policies; the problem is that they didn’t communicate them well enough, and others were spreading falsehoods.
No sign of an admission that many people no doubt understood the policies and didn’t like them.
Another WTF moment was Julie Bishop citing the Warringah result to conclude that the Liberals should take climate change more seriously. What about the rest of the country?
Even allowing for better LNP results in other states I thought Labor would win easily. But I live in the PR of Viktoria.
Watching the faces of the commentators on the ABC last night was priceless.
You’d think that after Brexit, Trump etc they may have been aware of the phenomenon of the ‘shy Tory’, but alas….
(Left-liberal hubris was obviously not ready for any self-reflection)
Currently I’m on the Camino di Fancesco in Italy. Yesterday around midday in the village of Cantalice, there was a fireworks display , not something you generally expect in broad daylight.
Clearly yet another sign from the almighty approving the Morrison Miracle. I look forward to 3 years of sweetness and light.