Unlike Warmists, Numbers Don’t Lie

A new study, conducted by lead author Ian McNaughton, formerly senior scientist at the UK Atomic Energy Authority, and John McRobert seeks to ascertain whether there is a meaningful relationship between carbon dioxide concentrations and global temperatures. The study, Temperature Measurements versus Population Growth & Carbon Dioxide Concentrations, completed in December 2023, examines the contentious claim, often made by climate change scientists, that the increase in temperatures of Planet Earth is determined by the increasing levels of carbon dioxide concentrations and other “green-house” gases.  

Controversy involving climate change continues to be widespread throughout the world.  There is no argument that the world’s climate is changing – always has, always will. The controversy centres on whether Carbon Dioxide (CO₂) generated – actually recycled – by human activity is the cause of a more rapid change in climate that would not have occurred without the presence of humans, notably since  the Industrial Revolution commencing in the late 1700s.

For decades, the scientific debate about the threat of rising global temperatures from increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration has depended on estimation, the use of anomalies rather than actual and complex computer modelling of key variables.  The complexity of these calculations and reliability of the result are seen in the widely variable (and always above actual outcomes) predictive models.  The rising CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere and rising surface temperatures as used by these calculations indicate a strong positive correlation, and modelling extrapolation of this relationship into the future shows alarming, exaggerated increases in global temperatures leading to widespread concern about ‘global warming’. Not unexpectedly, this has created a demand by the public for urgent action by governments to significantly reduce the concentration of atmospheric CO₂ at a global level.

In stark contrast, McNaughton’s study is based on a simpler approach restricted to actual data from several sites, and using only basic computations, mainly graphical, to determine the relationship between the key variables in the debate. That data, covering temperature, CO₂ concentration and population size and growth sourced from various websites, was not modified, homogenised, or adjusted in any way, hence the graphs that form the basis of this study, directly reflect their actual values and variations.

Furthermore, it was not the purpose of the study to discuss how changes in complex local, global, and cosmic processes over long periods of geological time influence the weather except to note that they do, as reflected in the glacial – interglacial record from ice cores.  Instead, this study focussed on the outcome of the combined effects of these processes in terms of temperature levels and CO₂ concentrations, presented in graphical form with extrapolations to provide an indication of what values they are likely to take in the future.

Initially, key temperature measurements were taken from those made at a meteorological station located at Observatory Hill in the inner-city Sydney suburb of Millers Point, close to the CBD.  This site was chosen since the temperature variations measured there were assumed to be typical of most of the major cities in the world that shared common environmental factors such as population size and growth, industrial processes, and numbers of motor vehicles.

For comparison purposes, temperature measurements were also sourced from five other cities/regions located around the world: Central England, Bangkok, Sacramento-San Francisco, Autauga County (US), and Massachusetts. Global measurements of CO₂ accepted by scientists were chosen on the assumption they were common to all meteorological stations around the world.

Analysis of the trends of CO₂ concentration, population growth and temperature, showed that, although there is a visible relationship between population growth and increases in the concentration of atmospheric CO₂, there is little or no visible relationship between increases in CO₂ concentration and temperature for the six sites examined, and by inference, globally. This assertion is based on the following graph of the measurements recorded in Sydney where the variations are typical of all the other sites analysed.  The graph clearly shows the independence of temperature variations from the increasing concentrations of CO₂:

The study reveals that temperatures are influenced mostly, if not entirely, by the ever-present local, global, and cosmic forces that have affected temperatures throughout geological time.  This suggests that, regardless of what action the world takes to reduce or eliminate future increases in CO₂ concentrations, global temperatures will continue to vary (as shown) in line with local, global, and cosmic processes, independent from the concentration of CO₂ in the atmosphere.

The temperature and CO₂ data from the six separate sites were processed using Microsoft EXCEL.  Best-Fit (or Trend-Lines) for the above variables were added to each graph. In the case of temperatures, the optimal Trend Lines were linear.  For the CO₂ and Population graphs, the best fits were polynomials – a 4^th degree polynomial for CO₂ and a 2^nd degree polynomial for Sydney population.

The Trend Lines are seen to be excellent representations of the changes over time for each of the variables, and closely match the actual recorded values of CO₂ concentration and temperature data from the six sources.  Each Trend Line was extrapolated backwards to 1740, and forwards to 2100.  The year 1740 was chosen as closest to the lower limits of useful data; the year 2100 was chosen as a date common in current discussions of climate change.

The graphs allowed the levels of temperatures for the next few decades to be predicted with reasonable accuracy because the observable variations of temperature at the chosen sites have been consistent for well over a century, even during the later years (1980s and beyond) when the concentration of CO₂ accelerated beyond the rates observed for the earlier period, 1740 to 1940. The concentration of CO₂ is also totally dependent on volcanic activity when it occurs. The 1815 Tambora eruption resulted in the following ‘year without a summer’ and the more recent Mt Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines in 1991 lowered global surface temperatures by approximately 1C for about a year.

In summary, the graphs showed that temperature averaged for all the sites examined is currently increasing at an approximate rate of 0.01^oC per year, or just under 1.00^oC for every 100 years.  There is no graphical indication in all the locations examined that the increasing concentrations of CO₂ in the atmosphere had any impact on temperature variations. The inference is that this trend is not just local, but global as well.

In conclusion, the relationship between increasing global concentrations of CO₂ and increasing global temperatures for the six sites studied has been shown to be tenuous at least, and most likely, absent.  It suggests that the increasing concentrations of global atmospheric CO₂, regardless of its sources, should no longer be of global concern to humanity now and into the future.

However, solutions to enable the world’s population to live comfortably with the inevitable increase in temperature resulting from local, global, and cosmic processes, need to be determined since there is nothing humanity can do to stop the increases. Based on this study’s predictions, these solutions do not include regulation of human recycling of CO₂, and there is ample time to determine exactly what they will be. In the meantime, money and resources currently being wasted on inefficient methods of harnessing energy would be far better spent in hardening our infrastructures with flood-mitigation, water-capture-and-storage, fire-proofing houses in the outback, drought-proofing and building cyclone resistant ports, and dependable coal-fired power stations and hopefully, nuclear power stations. So-called and deceptively named carbon-capture-and-storage (really meaning CO₂ capture and storage) is a dreadful waste of resources when life on Earth needs this valuable heavier-than-air, non-polluting plant nutrient to flow freely in the forests.

McNaughton’s study reveals that there is no climate emergency, just a man-made political weapon polluting the minds of the ill-informed and gullible, and allowing politicians and others to pursue their not-so-hidden agendas.

Gabriël Moens AM is an emeritus professor of law at the University of Queensland and served as pro vice-chancellor and dean at Murdoch University. In 2003, Moens was awarded the Australian Centenary Medal by the prime minister for services to education. He is the co-author of The Unlucky Country (Locke Press) 

Ian L. K. McNaughton (now retired) was a physicist, mathematician & IT Manager. His experience includes measurement of cosmic rays in the Antarctic. He served as a Senior Scientist at the United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority, Winfrith, Dorset.

John McRobert is a civil engineer with over 60 years’ experience in the design, construction and maintenance of major infrastructure, and the study of extreme natural events on man-made structures. He founded CopyRight Publishing in 1987 to facilitate informed debate, publishing over 200 books, including seminal volumes by geologists and engineers on major Earth seismic events