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Graham Lloyd, the environment editor at The Australian, has a moderately good record of digging up politically incorrect material which dispels this or that building block of the climate scam. He’s never shy of reporting increased coral on the GBR, for instance. I’m not sure how he survives. Glad he does. Sure, his newspaper is part of the problem, but any port in a storm.
This time the ‘wayward’ material is a study which gathers and analyses recent evidence on the effect of climate change on extreme weather events and, also, on agricultural productivity. It’s by some Italian scientists led by Gianluca Alimonti, from the Italian National Institute for Nuclear Physics and the University of Milan. The study can be found in The European Physical Journal Plus. It was published online on January 13, 2022. Its conclusions undermine the daily propaganda that passes for news on the mainstream media. No, that flooding is not unusual; nor is that bushfire; nor that hurricane; nor that drought.
Others have said much the same thing. Michael Shellenberger and Bjorn Lomborg, as examples. However, the Alimonti study has a particular focus on extreme weather events which, I think, stands it somewhat apart. It’s well worth reading and promoting. We know that it’ll be otherwise buried; shunned — the practised technique of leftists. Indeed, so far as I’m aware, but for Lloyd’s piece, it had already been buried and shunned.
What’s the point, you might ask? No minds will be changed. Personally, I know it will not change the harping about the environment in the intercessory prayers at my church. It certainly won’t change the alarmist stance of the hierarchy of the Anglican and Roman Catholic churches. It won’t change the stance of the IPCC, the ABC or the BBC. Or the ACTU or Big Business. Or David Attenborough or the World Economic Forum.
So, what is the point? Simply to keep the truth on life support. Who knows, as unlikely as it seems, the political mood might change. Facts dispassionately sought after. Western-civilisation haters, Marxists and rent-seeking nihilists dispatched to the Phantom Zone. Sorry, got carried away. Adam Bandt, the Teals and woke corporates are probably fixtures in any conceivable future. Still, gotta keep buggering on. Hence a few tasty excerpts from the study to whet the appetite. First to the main conclusion: “…on the basis of the observational data, the climate crisis that, according to many sources, we are experiencing today, is not yet evident.”
Hurricanes: “To date, global observations do not show any significant trends in both the number and the energy accumulated by hurricanes.”
Floods: “A long list of studies shows little or no evidence of increased flood magnitudes, with some studies finding more evidence of decreases than increases.”
Droughts: Quoting the IPCC’s fifth assessment report (2014), “Conclusions regarding global drought trends since 1970 are no longer supported.” Quoting a separate study covering the period 1981-2018, “results show that for the entire globe, hemispheres and the main grain-producing countries (China, USA and India) drought has not intensified and expanded during [the time period].”
Agricultural production: Cites studies on satellite data which “show greening trends over much of the planet that are pushing back deserts around the world.” Cites an Australian simulation study, showing the global upward trend of gross primary productivity (GPP) due to increasing atmospheric CO2. To wit, “Overall, the increase in GPP from 1900 to 2020 is estimated to be 30% while it is estimated that it will reach 47% if CO2 would double [from its pre-industrial level] to 560 ppmv.”
Finally, from the authors’ concluding remarks (emphasis added):
Since its origins the human species has been confronted with the negative effects of climate …Today we are facing a warm phase and, for the first time, we have the monitoring capabilities to evaluate its effects. Fearing a climate emergency without this being supported by data means altering the framework of priorities with negative effects that could prove deleterious to our ability to face challenges of the future, squandering natural and human resources … We need to remind ourselves that addressing climate change is not an end in itself, and that climate change is not the only problem that the world is facing.
It goes without saying that the authors make the “right” noises at times (“This does not mean that we should do nothing about climate change…”) to ward off cancellation maybe. However, the study stands as an indictment of our age. I say ‘our age’ advisedly, to encompass the modern-day saturation of most minds with an unthinking and moronic belief in a speculative hypothesis of impending climate doom built on tenuous modelling accompanied by a series of unworkable and crippling measures which have zero chance of combatting the doom, even if it were real, which it isn’t.
You can talk about primitive ages all you like. About Neanderthals, cavemen, witchcraft, sorcery, voodoo. This one takes the cake. And, incidentally, the grotesque response to the virus put a cherry on top. Some say it’s due to the decline of religious belief. Not sure about that. Listen to the Pope, the Archbishop of Canterbury, church congregants. I imagine it’s a morbid hysteria of some kind. Hopefully it will pass, as did the Stone Age.
Peter. I haven’t read The Oz for years, but when I did I used to think of Graham LLoyd as ‘the man with a bum full of splinters’ because of his attempts to sit on the fence regarding global warming. I am sure the paper’s management would tip him out if he really said something controversial, such as ‘BS’!
As a religious man you will be aware of the Pope’s encyclical Laudato Si. Read Prof Ian Plimer’s book Heaven & Hell, subtitled ‘The Pope condemns the poor to eternal poverty’ about the role of the church in pushing the global warming scam. BTW, Plimer is a catholic.
No responsible person in charge of any significant organisation would venture into any project without first doing a detailed cost/ benefit analysis, however, the governments throughout the world have chosen to embark on policies of zero carbon emissions for their nations without undertaking such an analysis, which is, in my opinion, profound professional negligence.
Surely we must know the detail costs and expected benefits of any proposal before making changes which will undermine our economy.
I blame our media for not holding our governments to account. The ABC is the propaganda unit of the climate change lobby.
And on a different topic, the same is happening with the Voice.
Spot on Colin. In war and business its the same question, ‘what’s the end game?’ The current government should be asking what will we achieve by hitting emission targets by the end of this decade? The answer should be to see a reduction in emissions or at least see them plateau, but they seem content with just a reduction in emissions. They refuse to look at the global picture, which will still be bleak as emissions will have risen. Remember when Julia Gillard wanted to clean up the column of air above Australia.
I tend to think we have things the wrong way around in the climate change debate. Typically this revolves around two questions. Firstly, is climate change happening and secondly is this a danger to humanity? However if the answer to the second question is “no”, the first question is of no consequence. Bjorn Lomborg is particularly good at demonstrating that the supposed dangerous effects are grossly exaggerated or simply untrue.
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However acceptance of the facts requires a logical world, and anyone with experience of human relationships knows that emotion always trumps logic. In this case the rent seekers rule by playing on fear. Left wingers like the ABC and ALP seek rents of political leverage. Renewables profiteers, like those infesting the Liberal Party, seek financial rents, as do those in academia whose livelihoods depend on continued fear of climate “catastrophe”. Those like the Teals seek status rents in conspicuous virtue. In the face of all these vested interests, what hope of any sanity?
It is with burning sorrow that I have to agree with the writer.
Twenty years ago it was easy to consider the CO2 hypotheses as being reasonable, CO2 is another greenhouse gas so perhaps the modelers were right.
In Laudato Si the Pope backed the valid view of the beauty of creation and the need to conserve it without exploiting the poor.
Who could object?
Since then he has not been seen to back off from the need to stop fossil fuels and save creation.
Yet the climate data continually defies the original predictions and things appear to be going the way the geologists predicted, a modest rise of temperature consistent with a rebound from the LIA.
Things have started to change.
On the SBS the other day some European scientists were careful to explain how they cored numerous trees to determine the climate and corrected for humidity and temperature.
The drumbeat was that European Climate had been much hotter in the past while civilizations flourished.
It was cold that killed them off.
I could not help thinking about that single bristlecone tree in Yamal and the hockeystick graph that underpinned the climate catastrophe narrative we have today.
Increasingly a younger generation are looking at this all again.
A few months ago I was asked to pray for the saving of the GBR in the Prayers of the Faithfull.
There is no data that suggests its going to die off at all, as the sea level rises the living coral follows the rise.
Coral atolls are booming.
No one can find the ‘Hot Spot’.
The Antarctic is cooling.
Summer sea ice has not disappeared from the Arctic.
If this theory were any other it would have been radically revised, but no, just changed to ‘Climate Change”’, an ineffable, so non quantifiable prediction which cannot be measured.
I feel another Galileo moment coming on.
The Pope and with him the CC could be caught arguing for decarbonisation while the data supports warming as generally benign or positive and weakly caused by human burning of fossil fuels.
It is moot that most of the populations act as if burning coal will pull their populations out of the curse of poverty, in that they ignore the Pope.
For data on this just look at the BRICS.
Yet these are the people who we Catholics hope to ‘convert’.
The ‘West’ is devolving into small Christian community models or disappearing.
Any new Pope will have to address this.
Not that the blanket of Infallibility enfolds the Papal concept of climate change.
But for billions, if the CC, through his representation, tells them to shut down, or not develop current technology power and so remain desperate in poverty, for no real use, what will they think of the veracity of the Apostolic Tradition and Deposit of Faith?
Lewis; “A few months ago I was asked to pray for the saving of the GBR in the Prayers of the Faithfull.
There is no data that suggests its going to die off at all, as the sea level rises the living coral follows the rise.
Coral atolls are booming.”
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Looks like the prayers were answered. I suggest that you could ask the parish committee to include a prayer of thanks for that. If you provided the evidence, it would be most interesting to see how they would respond.
Unfortunately that would not work.
The prayer was uttered after the GBR recovered.
“Steven Koonin, Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn’t, and Why It Matters, April 2021”
Said much the same things as this report. Koonin was Undersecretary for Energy in the Obama administration, and as such a warmist. He does have a sense of integrity though and is a very well-credentialled physicist involved with climate analyses.
His book strips out the hyperbole and dishonesty in all of measurements, modelling and attribution. For his efforts he and his book have been very quickly shoved down the memory hole. (I recommend reading his book if you wish to hear from an honest warmist).
One has to expect that this report from Alimonti et al, delineating empirical data to present day as opposed to probabilistic guesses, will be shoved rapidly down the same hole.
Ah, the media loves a panic. Mencken was right in every way. Peter, just remind your co-religionists of Genesis 8:22; that might get them a little less panicked.
Thanks ianl for mentioning Steve Koonin’s book, Unsettled. In it he describes what the IPCC Reports actually say. The 4,000 odd page reports are actually pretty sober and factual and say a lot of things quite similar to what the Italians are saying. But it seems that hardly anyone actually reads the reports. The report lead to the summary for Decision Makers which is a political document which is edited and argued over by all UN members. We then get the press releases which emphasize the bad news to get the attention of the media needed to in order to support the need for extra funding. The media then scream about the most extreme details in the press releases on the old basis of if it bleeds, it leads. The fanatical activists then amplify the bad news even further into a state of panic.
The result is an irrational panic that will cause far, far more damage than an increase of a degree or two.
PS, Google Steve Koonin. He has a couple of hour long Youtube presentations about “Unsettled” which are quicker and easier to access than buying the book.
We are almost 3/4 through the US hurricane season (Jun – Nov) and not a single hurricane or severe tropical storm has made landfall in the US this year. The average is around 14 per season with 5-7 typically making landfall. So far there has been 3 hurricanes this season – all well out to sea in the Atlantic. Of course, things may take a turn for the worse yet but there is only a handful of weeks left with waters warm enough to generate any significant storms.
P.S. Brisbane just suffered its coldest winter on record (mean temperature) – How dare they!
I have read that a cause of warming is that the CO2 in the atmosphere reflects infra red heat back to earth. I have not read that it reflects any the other way back towards the Sun.
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Maybe I am just a simple person but I would have thought there was this countervailing effect.
My understanding is it reradiates it in all directions. The radiation back to the surface is supposed to cause the heating. But there is now commentary that to transfer energy from the colder upper atmosphere to the warmer lower is against the laws of thermodynamics. There is also William Happer’s work that demonstrates the absorption bands for CO2 and CH4 are now saturated – so no more AGW.
We also have CLINTEL with its report: “There is no Climate Emergency” signed by 1100 scientists. There is a torrent of questions, opinion, and challenges refuting the existing paradigm. I just wonder how long before the dam bursts.
“Adam Bandt, the Teals and woke corporates are probably fixtures in any conceivable future”.
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I can conceive a future, hopefully without me, in which China annexes Australia, make Brandt and the Teals powerless and irrelevant, and nationalises or otherwise rids corporates of wokeness.
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Believe it or not, as I typed the above I received a call purportedly from +61452032237 with the first two words “Chinese Embassy” and the rest in, I presume, Chinese, repeated once from “Chinese Embassy”, then it disconnected. Called the number and “Your call could not be connected. Please try again”.
The latest phase of the Quaternary Glaciation is still in progress since 2.58 million years ago — many think today’s climate changes are a new phenomenon, because they do not know how the earth’s climate works — through an extremely complex mix of different sub-systems all interacting with each other on a wide range of time and space scales, e.g. atmospheric, oceanic currents, ice masses, the biosphere, sunspots or lack thereof, solar winds, cosmic radiation, supernovas, suns magnetic field, phases of the moon, just one volcano puts out more CO2 than man has ever done.
The Earth is a huge CO2 factory producing and consuming massive amounts of CO2 as it has always done, since time began and will do to infinity. The Earth must have a continuous supply of CO2 to allow plants to grow, life to form and exist, without it plants and all life will die including humans if it gets below about 150 ppm — we are all carbon based from Earth produced CO2. We are a product of the earth itself. The natural essential fuel to sustain all life comes from volcanic CO2 production — there are about 1,581 land volcanoes, 50 -70 active each year and about 20 erupting at any given time producing CO2 the fuel for life (as well and enriching soil minerals for plant growth), with an estimated 139,096 active under-sea volcanoes releasing huge volumes of CO2. Adverse atmospheric effect from undersea volcanic activity can be detected, while the volcano itself can remain hidden.
The Gakkel Ridge underwater mountain chain 1,800 kilometres long from Greenland to Siberia under the Arctic-Ice is afire continuously oozing molten rock and CO2. In the valleys the two 12 km wide coastal plates are coming apart causing massive volcanic activity where red-hot magma has blown the tops off dozens of submarine volcanoes four kilometres below the ice with eruptions as big as the one that buried Pompeii, with massive CO2 discharge. In Antarctica there are two volcanoes on land and 128 undersea volcanoes that cause frequent extensive ice melts irrespective of climate.
Professor Albert Einstein said our vascular food plants will die if CO2 reduction drops below 180 ppm, and humas will starve.
THE NORMAL WORKING OF THE EARTH’S NATURAL CLIMATE FACTORY IS NOT CLIMATE CHANGE. Remember from school the Murray River Dried up in 1915 never been dry since; AUSTRALIA HAS EXPERIENCED ABOUT 24 MAJOR DROUGHTS SINCE 1803 AND A 23-YEAR MEGA-DROUGHT BETWEEN 1500 and 1522: Proven by coral, stalagmite and tree growth rings.
EXTREME CLIMATE VARIATIONS HAVE OCCURRED HUNDREDS ON TIMES
‘Chronological Listing of Early Weather Events’ http://www.breadandbutterscience.com/Weather.pdf
Page 7. ‘Important Observations’
Page 10. ‘Notable Events include:’ going back to 1 AD.
These extreme climatic events changed the course of human history.
This proves the lies and nonsense of the ‘Greens’ and ‘Extinction Rebellion’ fools.
Current severe climatic conditions, while devastating, are within normal variations of Earth’s weather events — just that we do not live long enough to remember the last one.