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After my misplaced forecast of a Romney win in the 2012 U.S. presidential election, I have studiously avoided political prognostications. However a couple of reflections seem appropriate in the aftermath of the 2018 mid- terms.
Greg Sheridan, along with a number of others, has credited President Donald Trump with a political victory. On the raw figures, compared with Bill Clinton in 1994, and Barack Obama in 2010 and 2014, the President’s party only suffered moderate losses in the House of Representatives, and made almost unprecedented gains in the Senate. Indeed, over the longer term, the swing against the Republicans in 2018 was below average.
Yet a note of caution is warranted. The Democrats of yesterday were not, as they are today, the party of an extreme left wing “resistance”. We may accuse Trump of verbal excesses and vulgarity, but much of the Democrat leadership seemed only too happy to foment harassment of their Republican opponents, and reluctant to condemn the violence of Antifa and other extremists groups and individuals who serve as the Left’s skirmishers and auxiliaries.
If the Democrats had emphasised civility and adhered to a centrist position, they would likely have made far more significant gains in the House, possibly even gained a majority in the Senate. Yes, on the raw figures, Trump did relatively well. But in terms of political cultur, we should be concerned that a very leftist Democrat Party was still able to capture a majority in the House.
Another point to remember is that a fair proportion of the Democrat representatives, thirty years ago, in the House and Senate were so-called “Blue Dogs”. These were conservative Democrats who regularly cooperated with Republicans, and enabled President Ronald Reagan in the 1980’s to enact so much of his legislative programme. Today, the Blue Dogs are all but an extinct species. All the so-called “moderate” Senators, bar Joe Manchin from West Virginia, joined the manic “resistance” against the appointment to the Supreme Court of Brett Kavanaugh, a distinguished jurist with an unblemished record. United with the likes of leftist Senators like Kamala Harris, Dianne Feinstein, Cory Booker and the rest of the Democrat leadership in the promotion of utterly baseless smears against Kavanuagh, they proved to be easy pickings for their Republican challengers. The Senate Judiciary Committee hearings should have made the Democrat brand toxic. The surprise is not that the Republicans have managed to capture up to four Democrat-held Senate seats, but that the Democrats managed to do so well overall in the aftermath of their deranged and obnoxious behaviour.
Whilst there is some evidence of increased support for Trump amongst African-Americans, a notable feature of these midterms was the loss of support for Republicans by the white suburban affluent middle class, especially women. At any rate, Henry Olsen, in National Review, penned a prescient piece on the eve of election day that remains well worth reading even now that the votes have been counted.
In Texas, whilst Governor Greg Abbott won his race by a margin of over 13%, Ted Cruz only defeated “Beto” O’Rourke by about 2.6%. Clearly, registered Republicans defected to the vacuous O’Rourke in a fit of fatuous anti-Trumpism. This was a pattern replicated in many hitherto “safe” Republican Congressional districts all over the country. Moreover, the college educated affluent young, the sons and daughters of Republicans, seem particularly addicted to infantile leftism. Trump enthused his base, yet his loss of a large section of the educated and affluent white middle class has disturbing implications.
In the aftermath of the downfall of the Soviet empire, it was said that the last refuge of Marxism were the universities’ sociology departments. The leftist messianic impulse soon revived and cultural Marxism has become entrenched in universities in the US, here and elsewhere. White middle class millennials have been infected. In the United States and elsewhere, we have an increased voting bloc of the supposedly educated who are oblivious to history and yet to be mugged by reality.
One analysis
Said theDemocrats were particularly careful in the selection of House candidates, and this had a marked effect on the house result.
Cruz was well and truly outspent by O’Roukes billionaire backers.
Trumps senator victory is remarkable, in midterm.
And his loss in the House will likely reverse at the next Presidential election. The Republican’s had an unusually high number of retirements in the House. These had an impact and increased the number of Republican house losses.
Prediction;
Trump will win a second term and regain a majority in Congress.
I think you might blame the never-Trumpers rather than Trump. His Senate have been a pathetic joke who were gifted the Kavanaugh debacle prior to the election, which got people out voting. Paul Ryan ensured that absolutely no election promise would be kept – good riddance to him. It was those worthless GOP turds, not Trump, who lost public support. As for the women who turned against him over the Kavanaugh issue, that speaks volumes about the sort of women we are rearing in the West.
What might Mr Christopher Carr be: a half glass full or empty man? Not knowing him personally, and going only by this article, I’d say he was a half empty type, and not because he rightly pointed out that the Republicans had lost control of the House, but because he hasn’t elaborated on some of the enormous gains (other than the senate wins) Trump has accrued.
As several commentators have already pointed out, the GOP as a whole owes Trump a lot for his tireless campaigning in the lead up to the mid terms: many would have lost their seats in both the senate and the house had he not done what he had done.
Secondly, many of his greatest detractors, those ‘never-Trumpers’, so many of them are g-o-n-e. Rinos like Jeff Flake who cause Kavanaugh to be referred to yet another FBI investigation, after allowing himself to be bullied into it by several #MeToo female activists. And fellow collective pains in the rhododendron like Bob Corker, the late John McCain, the House majority leader, Paul Ryan, and so many others have been replaced by Trump loyalists grateful for his having saved their skins with his effective campaigning (and include Ted Cruz in that number). I think it was the former sceptic, Greg Sheridan, who said the Republican Party has become the Trump party and the level of newly acquired unity may indeed nullify the Democrat machinations.
No, I’m convinced any Democrat moves towards impeaching Donald Trump can only work in his favour come 2020 Presidential elections.
Christopher Carr
My chief concern is that a proportion of affluent suburban white voters, who had hitherto identified as Republicans, were prepared to support candidates such as Beto O’Rourke. A supposedly educated electorate seems more addicted to political stupidity if the attitude of the young is anything to go by.
By the way, I accept that the new Senate is more solidly Republican. The current Republican “majority” was soft, to say the least.
Finally, my hope and expectation is that the House Democrats will behave so stupidly that the “RINO’S” will come to their senses.
Christopher Carr
My login details quoted my old email address which is no longer operative. Friends and foes alike will find their emails bouncing!
For obvious reasons, my email address will not appear in any future comments
Donald has every reason to be triumphant after his victory on Tuesday or why Trump will romp into a second term.
1. One thing is critical in Presidential Elections.
The support of the Governors off the key swing states. Only two were up for election on Tuesday.
Florida and Ohio.
Trump Republican candidates won in both.
They will spend and focus on likely Trump support in their states
Come 2020.
That’s a huge advantage.
2. While Republicans lost some governorships none were in Traditional Republican states and the only wins Democrats had were in Traditional Democrat states where Republican Governoners have little or lesser influence than in swing states.
ie a sort of Status quo regardless of who is governor.
3. Due to the boundaries of presidential elections (state boundaries) any special demographic, eg ruch white women, will not have the same effect as they had in the House seats. All local suburb type electorates. They will be swamped in state wide elections.
3. The dual nature of candidature of the Senate elections have a similar lesser impact in presidential elections.
4. Trump now has the Republican Party united behind him. He has ridden it of the Managerial Elites who shares democratic social justice issues and views. The Republican Party is now the party of the enterpeuners and the working people.
5. Trump now has exact knowledge of where and how he can now focus much more precisely on the demographics he will need to retain or gain for his re-election.
7. While the conservative Judiciary will now almost entirely be ensconced for years to come Tuesday’s results will see Trump and his Republican successors creating a world well and truly changed from the stupid socialist/ managerial elitist path it was once on.
The greater upshot will be The Democrats will be starting to realize they will need to move away from the managerial elitist and irrelevant angry socialists it now represents.
1. One factor no-one seems to have noticed is that the women who could not bring themselves to vote for Hilary Clinton were emboldened to vote democrat because it is now a party without a leader of which to be ashamed. That it is a party without any leader at all is irrelevant for present purposes, but will be a critical issue in 2020.
2. Local issues played a role in the Congressional races far more so than in the Senate, which is reflected in the good result for Trump in the Senate compared to the less favourable outcome in the lower house.
Hi Wayne,
The demographic most important to Trump was he ‘black’ vote. It is in double digits nearly 18%. Unheard off and that will be influential in the ‘rust state belt.’
As I said earlier the localized nature of the mostly’whte rich women vote’ recorded in some house districts, will be swamped and irrelevant in a Presidential election.
Your. 2 nd point is accurate. And that factor as you suggest won’t matter in a Presidential election.
Cheers