This Time There Will be no Negotiations

Hamas is history, even though it’s still kicking. As Ikram Nur, from the Azeri news site Haqqin.az, wittily noted: “Hamas today found itself in a situation of a man who has successfully overwhelmed Mike Tyson by an unexpected blow. If this man can run fast and the door is fortuitously open – he is alright. However, if he is locked up with Mike Tyson in the same room and there’s nowhere to run – commiserations are in order.”

The degree of Israeli fury and anger is impossible to overestimate. For the first time since the Yom Kippur War, an Alef40 order has been given. This means that the Israeli military must be guided by military considerations only, without asking the political leadership for permission.

After declaring war on Hamas, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu told Gaza inhabitants “Leave while you can, because we will act everywhere with full might”. He also promised: “We will kill everyone who harms Israeli hostages”, and declared that Hamas would pay an unprecedented price, including the destruction of anything connected with Hamas until its complete annihilation.

In other words, Bibi follows an old Biblical rule: “An eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth”. Before critics jump up and down, telling me how unforgivably barbaric this rule is – let me say that this rule is precisely the opposite of being barbaric and simply means that the punishment must fit the crime. In other words – you cannot demand a perpetrator’s eye if you have lost a tooth as a result of his actions. In Hamas’s case it means complete extirpation. My guess – the Jewish state will deliver on this promise – fast and harsh.

The Hamas atrocity is already called Israel’s 9/11. Biden’s administration seems to share this view, warning “third parties” not to interfere with Israel’s response. This warning is directed to Hizballah and its patron, Iran. The nearby Sixth Fleet fills this warning with substance. A kind word and a pistol are more convincing than the kind word on its own.

I would not exclude the possibility of a combined Israeli-American attack on the Iranian proxy, perhaps even on the terror-sponsoring state itself? That would certainly strengthen the attachment of the Gulf States to the US and make rapprochement with Israel easier. These tiny but strategically important entities floating on their seas of oil and gas-filled sand patches are terrified of Iran, its fanatical leaders and their messianic phantasms.  

The weekend’s barbaric attack crystallised many countries’ positions. Curiously, our leftist Penny Wong has called on both parties “to show restraint”. Israeli restraint towards murderers and kidnappers? Restraint by the people being murdered? This adds to Labor’s insult of calling the West Bank “occupied” instead of “disputed”.

This time there will be no negotiations. You do not negotiate with your would-be killer. This time there will be no restraint. You do not accord civilised restraint to a murderer and kidnapper bent on killing you and your family, kidnapping and raping your women, destroying your life and the lives of those you love. Israel, regardless of what the UN says, will do what it must. When, not if, Israel’s military destroys Hamas, many, if not most, of their ‘Arab brothers’, especially Persian Gulf monarchies, will sigh with relief.

Cui bono? The age-old question – who benefits? Definitely not Hamas. Its leaders, terror merchants, homophobes, anti-Semites and misogynists are not idiots. They know they have no chance of winning against Israel’s army. So, why did they attack? Hamas leaders know that, by this assault, they give a potent weapon to Israeli negotiators during the Israel-Saudi Arabian talks on mutual recognition. All Israelis have to do in response to overtures by the Saudis about ‘Palestinian interests is to say – “Whose interests? Terrorists, murderers and kidnappers?” CFS — compassion fatigue syndrome — is well and truly established in the Arab world.

Does Iran benefit? It depends on what one regards as a benefit. If inflicting harm on Israel could be regarded in that light – then, certainly, Iran gained from the Hamas attack. However, the simple logic dictates that if Iranians were behind the Hamas attack, they would have activated Hezbollah in Lebanon to coincide with assault in the south. Perhaps they still will. But as I see it right now, while Iranians might have contributed to the preparation of the assault and supplied hardware, their main client remains Hezbollah. There appears to be  some demarcation between the spheres of terrorist support: Teheran looks after Hizballah, Moscow cultivates Hamas. “Iran is a major player but we can’t yet say if it was involved in the planning or training,” said Admiral Daniel Hagari, a spokesperson for the Israel Defence Forces.

Another possibility – the Russian Federation. Hamas attacked Israel on the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War, on the eve of this year’s Simchat Torah (celebration of receiving the Torah from the Almighty) and on the birthday of Vladimir Putin. That’s a lot of coincidences. Middle East ‘diplomacy’ is rich in such symbolism. Hamas is a long-term financial client of Russia and is recognised there as an official representative of the ‘Palestinian people’. Disturbingly, Hamas’  modus operandi, attacks spreading terror by small armed groups is resembling the tactics of the Russian Army in Ukraine. The history of Russian-Hamas links, including personal relationships, financing of terror activities, fighters training, weapons supply etc. goes back to Soviet Union times. 

According to the Washington Post, “In recent years, Russia’s contact with Hamas has become more frequent. Since 2020, Lavrov has received senior Hamas figures — including the leader of the group, Ismail Haniyeh — at least five times in Moscow, with the most recent visit taking place in March.”

There is evidence of close ties Moscow has developed with the Taliban whose representatives, just like Hamas envoys, recently visited Moscow. There’s even a report of the visitings Talibs losing credit cards in a Moscow supermarket. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace puts it this way:

Symbolically, Russia last year issued accreditation to a Taliban official to represent Afghanistan diplomatically in Russia. Only a handful of other states in the world have taken such a step. Considering its economic isolation from the West, Moscow does not have many options when it comes to building trade ties.

Why would Russia be involved? Don’t they have enough problems with the Ukrainians? Why would they want another enemy? Some reasons.

1/ The Russians did not expect such strong opposition from the Ukrainians.

2/ The Russians did not expect such a united and powerful Western response to their attack on Ukraine.

3/ By directing Hamas to attack Israel, the Russians counted on splitting US help between Israel and Ukraine. America is rich, but its resources are not inexhaustible. 

4/ By influencing a reduction of American help, the Russians could ease their soldiers’ ordeal under the devastating effectiveness of Western weapons. 

5/ By opening a new focus of the world’s attention, the Russians would benefit from diverting the spotlight from their own inhumanities in Ukraine.

What are the possible consequences of the Hamas attack?

1/ The death of Hamas as a functioning organisation and destruction of their leaders and activists.  Apparently, malice and hatred are bad advisors in foreign policy.

2/ An Israeli ground operation which will be costly and bloody. Success will require re-occupation of whatever is left of Gaza.  Its Arab population will either emigrate or become Israel’s residents, initially without voting rights. 

3/ A resolution for the Israeli split over intended judicial reform as more pressing matters — life or death — take precedence.

4/ The emergence of a stronger Israel is attractive to the Arab world as a counterbalance to the Iran’s threat. 

5/ A strong message to terror merchants – “Enough is enough!”

6/ A resolution of the Israeli split over intended judicial reform. If it wasn’t clear before, it should be clear now: bitter division in a democracy nation weakens that nation and makes the bad guys contemplate the unthinkable. This is an axiom Australians and our allies should accept and step back from virtue signalling, moral posturing and political correctness.

7/ War is spreading, inching closer to becoming global.  This spread is a direct consequence of the Russian Foreign policies in conjunction with other terrorist states – Iran and North Korea. Plain to see, this requires a resolute response. 

The footage from israel is stomach-turning, yet good may come out of it if Netanyahu fulfils his promise to destroy Hamas completely and utterly. And, at the end of the day, there his invitation for the West to recognise self-interest and unite against terror.